- 2.144.5 Enterprise Demand Forecast
- 184.108.40.206 Process and Procedure
- 220.127.116.11.1 Introduction
- 18.104.22.168.1.1 Administration
- 22.214.171.124.2 Overview
- 126.96.36.199.3 Workflow
- 188.8.131.52.3.1 Main Process Diagram
- 184.108.40.206.3.2 Inputs
- 220.127.116.11.3.3 Outputs
- 18.104.22.168.3.4 Activities
- 22.214.171.124.3.5 Roles
- 126.96.36.199.3.6 Procedure
- 188.8.131.52.4 Process Control
- 184.108.40.206.5 Training
- 220.127.116.11.6 Exhibits
Part 2. Information Technology
Chapter 144. 4 Capacity Management
Section 5. Enterprise Demand Forecast
July 28, 2015
(1) This transmits a revised IRM Part 2 Chapter 144 Capacity Management, Section 5 Enterprise Demand Forecast with updated Process Description and Procedure Templates
(1) Revise the entire document with updated IPM Process Description and Procedure Templates.
Terence V. Milholland
Chief Technology Officer
Enterprise Demand Forecast Process
This document describes the formal process for implementing the requirements of the Enterprise Demand Forecast process. It provides an operational definition of the major components of the process and how to perform each step in the process. This document also describes the logical arrangements of steps that are essential to successfully completing the process and achieving it desirable outcome.
A process is defined as “A set of related activities that accomplish a common goal”. The process definition laid out in this document further breaks down these Activities into Tasks, each of which have a complete set of attributes defined such as data and tool specifications and the role(s) responsible for executing the tasks. The document also includes process goal and objectives, metrics, role definitions, policies and other process related attributes.
The purpose of Enterprise Demand Forecast Process is to capture all project estimated computation forecast needs on Virtualized Platform in IRS.
The process goal describes a specific purpose or achievement toward which the efforts of the process are directed. Each process has a specific focus and when combined with the other processes, forms a comprehensive framework for delivering and managing services.
Support the business unit or project office to capture all project estimated forecast needs for platforms included in the current Enterprise Demand Management (EDM) initiative. The forecasting process is executed on a quarterly basis.
Process objectives describe material outcomes that are produced or achieved by the process. The following is a list of objectives for this process:
To outline the steps required to execute a common process for quarterly Enterprise Demand Forecast (EDF) data calls for IRS project needs for platforms included in EDM.
A workflow consists of Activities and Tasks, Inputs and Outputs, Roles, and Flow Diagrams. It describes the tasks, procedural steps, organizations or people involved, required input and output information, and tools needed for each step of the process.
EDM Enterprise Demand Forecast Process Flow Diagram
Process inputs are used as triggers to initiate the process and to produce the desired outputs. Users, stakeholders or other processes provide inputs. The following is a list of inputs for this process:
Name Description Supplier Standard Demand Data Forecast URL Link Data Collector (Solution Engineering Process Maturity) prepares and Standard Demand Data Forecast URL Link, and Issues Quarterly Data Call to Business Unit or Project office for area forecast by email including the URL link unto Enterprise Demand Forecast SharePoint Web Site to enter its request Data Collector (Solution Engineering Process Maturity) Quarterly Forecast Data Data Forecaster understands its Business Requirements/Application Performance Goad, and send its quarterly forecast data back to Data Collector Data Forecaster (Business Unit/Project Office) Previous Forecast Data, Current Forecast Data, and Feedback from EOPs Rapid Provision Processing Data Data Collector Aggregates, Calculate, Manipulates, and Analyzes all Forecast Data Data Collector
External EOPs Rapid Provision Processing
Aggregated Forecast Data Engineer/Analyst sends the Aggregated Forecast Data to EDM Governance Board to prioritize the quarterly forecast data call from all Business Unit/Project Office Engineer/Analyst (Solution Engineering Platform & Performance Engineering) Prioritized Forecast Data EDM Governance Board scores and prioritizes forecast data EDM Governance Board
Each process produces tangible outputs. These outputs can take the form of products or data and can be delivered to a user or stakeholder, or, they can be used as inputs to other processes. Outputs are measurable in terms of quantity and quality. The following is a list of outputs for this process:
Name Description Recipient Standard Demand Data Forecast URL Link Standard Demand Data Forecast URL Link unto Enterprise Demand Forecast SharePoint Web Site to enter its request Data Forecaster (Business Unit/Project Office) Quarterly Forecast Data Data Forecaster send its quarterly forecast data back to Data Collector Data Collector (Solution Engineering Process Maturity) Aggregated Forecast Data Engineer/Analyst sends aggregated forecast data to EDM Governance Board for prioritizing quarterly forecast data from all sources EDM Governance Board Prioritized Forecast Data EDM Governance Board scores and prioritizes forecast data External UWR sequencing process
External Business Capacity Management Process
An activity is a major unit of work to be completed in achieving the objectives of the process. A process consists of a sequence of related activities that transforms inputs into outputs and performed by the roles defined in the process. Identify the activities in the process and provide a brief description. The activities must correspond with the high-level process flow diagram above. The following is a list of activities for this process:
ID Name Description STEP 1.0 Issue Quarterly EDF ACIO Data Call Every quarter, Data Collector will issue EDF ACIO Data Call includes URL link to EDF SharePoint Web Site via an email STEP 2.0 Prepare Enterprise Demand Forecast each ACIO supplies perspective HW/SW requirements Per EDM Environment (12-24 months out) Once Data Forecaster receives the quarterly call from Data Collector, he/she will understand Business Requirement/Application Performance Goal, and prepares Enterprises Demand Forecast each ACIO supplies perspective HW/SW requirement per EDM environment (12-24 months out). STEP 3.0 Collect Forecast Submission After each ACIO Data Forecaster enters its quarter request on EDF SharePoint Web site, Data Collector will collect all forecast submissions. STEP 4.0 Aggregate, Calculate, Manipulate, and Analyze Data Data Collector send all forecast submissions including previous and current forecast data, and feedback from external EOPs Rapid Provisioning Process to Engineer/Analyst for further aggregating, calculating, manipulating, and analyzing forecast data. STEP 5.0 Prepare Enterprise Demand Forecast Engineer/Analyst send aggregated Enterprise Demand Forecast Data to EDM Governance Board for prioritizing the forecast request; in the meantime, send aggregated data to Data Collector for preparing process metrics. Also, once receiving prioritized data back from EDM Governance Board, Engineer/Analyst sends it to external Business Capacity Management Process STEP 6.0 Prepare Process Metrics Data Collector prepares process metrics to measure the process performance
Each process defines at least one role. Each role is assigned to perform specific tasks within the process. The responsibilities of a role are confined to the specific process. They do not imply any functional standing within the hierarchy of an organization. For example, the process manager role does not imply the role is associated with or fulfilled by someone with functional management responsibilities within the organization. Within a specific process, there can be more than one individual associated with a specific role. Additionally, a single individual can assume more than one role within the process although typically not at the same time. The following roles have been identified for this process:
Name Description Data Collector The Data Collector is accountable for:
Issue Data Call for Quarterly Project EDM Data
Collect Demand Forecast Data from all sources
Prepare process metrics
Data Forecaster The Data Forecaster is responsible for preparing EDM for its area Engineer/Analyst The Engineer/Analyst is responsible for:
Aggregate, calculate, manipulate, and analyze forecast data
By sending aggregated data, and receiving from prioritized data interfacing with EDM Governance Group, EOP’s (including VPO, ESS) Rapid Provisioning Process, and Business Capacity Management
Identify the Tasks and Roles for each Activity
The tasks and roles for each activity are the following for this process are the following:
ID Task Name and Description Role RACI Duties Step 1.0 Issue Quarterly EDF ACIO Data Call
Each quarter. Data Collector has the responsibility for sending data calls to project office to remind them to initiate the data calls forecast
Data Collector issues the quarterly data call for area forecasts via an Email the URL Link to Enterprise Demand Forecast SharePoint Web Site.
Consult with Engineer to ensure the URL link is available
Inform Data Forecaster that the link is being to send
Step 1.1 Issue Quarterly EDF ACIO Data Call Data Collector R Determine/collect the current lists of Data Forecasters to receive the data call. Step 1.2 Issue Quarterly EDF ACIO Data Call Data Collector R Prepare a URL link to EDF SharePoint web site Step 1.3 Issue Quarterly EDF ACIO Data Call Data Collector R Issue quarterly Data Call for area forecast by email to include the URL link to link to EDF SharePoint web site Step 2.0 Prepare Enterprise Demand Forecast each ACIO supplies perspective HW/SW requirements Per EDM Environment (12-24 months out)
Data Forecaster has the responsibility for doing the each ACIO EDM forecast, and enter the requirements into EDF SharePoint Web Site
Data Forecaster R Data Forecaster prepares for quarterly Enterprise Demand Forecast (EDF) data calls for IRS project needs for platforms included in EDM. Step 2.1 Prepare Enterprise Demand Forecast each ACIO supplies perspective HW/SW requirements Per EDM Environment (12-24 months out) Data Forecaster R Click a URL link to link unto EDF SharePoint web site. Once on the EDF web page, on the left side under the “Relevant Links” web part, select “Input Forecast Data” to open the EDF Forecast Form. Step 2.2 Prepare Enterprise Demand Forecast each ACIO supplies perspective HW/SW requirements Per EDM Environment (12-24 months out) Data Forecaster R Select each field and use the drop down arrow to the right to select the information for your project. (Project – lists all the available project for estimation; Quarter – requests quarter for project estimation; Environment – the environments where the servers will be place; Server Size – defines the required resources for the creation of the virtual servers; Server Quantity – defines the amount of servers requested per environment/quarter; ECC Location – specifies the data center location for the environment; ESS Storage Size (GBs) – specifies the amount of storage needed for the server in gigabytes. Total storage for the O/S, data, DB’s, log files, etc.; ESS Support Level – defines the level of Enterprise Storage Solution comment level; Requested Email – enters the email of the person that will be knowledgeable of this request and can answer questions if contacted; Date & Time – enters data and time of submission of the form.
– enters any additional information deemed important. Note: (1). if your project is not listed on the form, you can add the new project to the selection options by selecting the ”Relevant Links”, and then select “Add Your Project – [if not in project selection list]” option. This will bring up the add project form where you can add the project for the selection in the EDF forecast form. Click “Save” to save the new project in the listing. (2). If you project requires multiple environments, then a separate form for each environment will need to be filled out. (3). If you need additional information ESS storage service levels, click on the “Relevant Links” on the left side of page and select the “ESS Storage Level” link to bring up the ESS storage information document.
Step 2.3 Data Forecaster R When finished with a particular project, enter the email of the person that will be knowledgeable of this request and can answer question if contacted. Step 2.4 Data Forecaster R Click “Save” to save your forecast information. Step 2.5 Prepare Enterprise Demand Forecast each ACIO supplies perspective HW/SW requirements Per Environment (12-24 months out) Data Forecaster
Complete a separate form for each project.
EDF SharePoint will automatically store all demand forecast data when the data are inputted Into the EDF SharePoint.
Step 3.0 Collect Forecast Submissions
Data Collector will collect all the submissions from each ACIO area through EDF SharePoint Web Site
Data Collector R Data Collector collects all demand forecast data from Data Forecaster(s). Step 3.1 Collect Forecast Submissions Data Collector R Collect all demand forecast data from Data Forecaster(s). Step 3.2 Collect Forecast Submissions Data Collector
Ensure all data are received in a timely manner (When data are inputted into Server & Storage Requirements Forecast Form, it will automatically store all demand forecast data).
When data are inputted into EDF SharePoint Input Forecast Data/EDF Demand Forecast Data, it will automatically store all demand forecast data
Step 4.0 Aggregate, Calculate, Manipulate, and Analyze Data
Engineer/Analyst has the responsibility to aggregate, calculate, manipulate, and analyze data from Data Collector for further process
Engineer/Analyst R Engineer/Analyst aggregates, calculates, manipulates, and analyzes demand forecast data as input to prepare Enterprise Demand Forecast. Step 4.1 Aggregate, Calculate, Manipulate, and Analyze Data Engineer/Analyst R Access EDF SharePoint Input Forecast Data to get the information from the current EDF data call, previous forecast data, and feedback from EOps Rapid Provisioning Process (including ESS). Reconciliation based on current/active UWR’s and forecast demand will need to take place. Any comments of changes will be sent back to Platform Engineering Group (Engineer/Analyst). Once Platform Engineering (PE) receives the EDF data, it then compares current in process projects to projects listed on the demand forecast sheet. If a duplicate project is found, then the demand Is compared to the PE’s analysis to locate discrepancies, and if discrepancies are found, it is noted in the summary of the demand forecast. Step 4.2 Aggregate, Calculate, Manipulate, and Analyze Data Engineer/Analyst R Updated capacity information is requested from Virtualization Project Office (VPO). Future concept is to have the visibility into the Enterprise EDM Infrastructure to collect current utilization of the infrastructure and then run reports to project remaining capacity. Step 4.3 Aggregate, Calculate, Manipulate, and Analyze Data Engineer/Analyst R Current/remaining capacity reports are then compared against demand requirements including any known project demands that fall outside of the EDF. Step 5.0 Prepare EDM Forecast
Engineer/Analyst has the responsibility for preparing EDM Enterprise Demand Forecast
Engineer/Analyst R Engineer/Analyst review the information each quarter from the EDF data call, and send the metrics to the EDM Government Group, EOP’s Rapid Provisioning, Business Capacity Management, and Process Maturity Group (Data Collector). Step 5.1 Prepare EDM Forecast Engineer/Analyst R Review the information each quarter from the EDF data call. If demand request reach beyond 85% capacity, then it is noted that additional server equipment will be needed Step 5.2 Prepare EDM Forecast Engineer/Analyst R Demand data is entered into Input Forecast Data on EDF SharePoint web site to keep track of the requests. A report is then generated and provided to the EDM Governance Group Step 5.3 Prepare EDM Forecast Engineer/Analyst R Participate in EDM Governance Group review and prioritize project requests. Step 5.4 Prepare EDM Forecast Engineer/Analyst R Create updated capacity demand and resource request report Step 5.5 Prepare EDM Forecast Engineer/Analyst R Send updated report to Business Capacity Management Step 6.0 Prepare Process Metrics
After all the forecast data prioritized, Data Collector will prepare the metric reports to measure the process performance
Engineer/Analyst sends an email with cumulated results to the Process Maturity Group (Data Collector). Step 6.1 Prepare Process Metrics Engineer/Analyst
Engineer/Analyst sends an email with cumulated results to Process Maturity Group (Data Collector). Example: number of requests return during the forecast, capacity estimations and priorities
[Enter Diagram Name]
Activities involved in ensuring a process is predictable, stable, and consistently operating at the target level of performance.
Process controls represent the policies and guiding principles on how the process will operate. Controls provide direction over the operation of processes and define constraints or boundaries within which the process must operate. The process controls are the following:
Name Description Policies This policy which the EDF process is guided by the Capacity Management policy documented in IRM 2.144.1. EDM Governance Board Score and prioritize demand forecast data Scope Capture all projects estimated forecast needs for platforms included in current EDF. The current scope of EDF as of the data of this IRS is x86/Z Linux Metrics Reports Measure the process performance
Management will regularly set targets for process performance, gather quantifiable data related to different functions of the Enterprise Demand Forecast process, and review that data in order to make informed decisions and take appropriate corrective action, if necessary. All Measurements will have a defined data dictionary, map to the organizational strategic goals, and be documented in a Process Measurement Plan. The Process Measurement Plan template is available in the IT PAL.
Policies outline a set of plans or courses of action that are intended to influence and determine decisions or actions of a process. Policies provide an element of governance over the process that provides alignment to business vision, mission and goals.
Process Management Statement: The Enterprise Demand Forecast process will have a single Process Owner and a separate Process Manager, responsible for implementation and ensuring adherence to the process. The process will be reviewed regularly to ensure that it continues to support the business requirements of the enterprise. The process will be designed and developed based on ROI to the business. Process metrics will be focused on providing relevant information as opposed to merely presenting raw data. People: Statement: Roles and responsibilities for the process must be clearly defined and appropriately staffed with people having the required skills and training. The mission, goals, scope and importance of the process must be clearly and regularly communicated by upper management to the staff and business customers of IT. All IT staff (direct and indirect users of the process) shall be trained at the appropriate level to enable them to support the process Rationale: It is imperative that people working in, supporting or interacting with the process in any manner understand what they are supposed to do. Without that understanding [Process Name] will not be successful. Process: Statement: Modifications to the Enterprise Demand Forecast process must be approved by the Process Owner. The design of the process must include appropriate interfaces with other processes to facilitate data sharing, escalation and workflow. The process must be capable of providing data to support real-time requirements as well as historical/trending data for overall process improvement initiatives. The process must be fully documented, published and accessible to the various stakeholders of the process. The process will be reviewed on a periodic basis in order to ensure it continues to support organizational goals and objectives (continuous improvement). The process must include Inputs, Outputs, Controls, Metrics, Activities, Tasks, Roles and Responsibilities, Tool and Data requirements along with documented process flows. The process will be kept straight forward, rational, and easy to understand. Rationale: The process must meet operational and business requirements. Technology and Tools: Statement: All tools selected must conform to the enterprise architectural standards and direction. Existing in-house tools and technology will be used wherever possible, new tools will only be entertained if they satisfy a business need that cannot be met by current in-house tools. The selection of supporting tools must be process driven and based on the requirements of the business. Selected tools must provide ease of deployment, customizing and use. The selected tools must support heterogeneous platforms. Automated workflow, notification and escalation will be deployed wherever possible to minimize delays, ensure consistency, reduce manual intervention and ensure appropriate parties are made aware of issues requiring their attention. The tools used by this process are the following
Enterprise Demand Forecast SharePoint Web Sitel
EDF Video Training
Rationale: Technology and tools should be used to augment the process capabilities, not become an end themselves.
The tailoring guidelines identify the allowable variations of the IT organization’s standard process as needed for adjustments (adding, deleting, modifying) relative to specific operational or functional needs of another organization. Process tailoring is about roles and procedures, not the standard process or major activities defined in this process. All tailoring request, with supporting rationale, must be submitted in writing to and approved by the [Process Name] owner.
Process training involves training all stakeholders about key processes that are crucial for an organization to deliver business objectives. Training provides clarity to employees on a set of procedures that needs to be carried out as part of the process and the best possible way to do them. List below the training resources available for this process:
EDF Lunch Brown Bag Session
EDF Knowledge Based Training (ELMS)
EDF Skills Based Training (SharePoint Videos)
Acronyms and Glossary
Acronyms Definition AD Application Development CMMI Capacity Maturity Model Integration EA Enterprise Architecture EDF Enterprise Demand Forecast EDM Enterprise Demand Management EOps Enterprise Operations ESS Enterprise Storage Service IPM Integrated Process Management or Integrated Production Model when uses for database environment IRM Internal Revenue Manual IT Information Technology ITIL Information Technology Infrastructure Library ITSM Information Technology Service Management JBoss JavaBeans Open Sources Software Application Server PAL Process Asset Library PD Process Description PMI Project Management Institute RACI Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed SBU Sensitive But Unclassified SE Solution Engineering SEPM SE’s Engineering Process Maturity URL Uniform Resource Locator VPO Virtualization Project Office
Term Definition Best Practice A best practice is a technique or methodology that, through experience and research, has proven to reliably lead to a desired result. A commitment to using the best practices in any field is a commitment to using all the knowledge and technology at one's disposal to ensure success. In software development, a best practice is a well-defined method that contributes to a successful step in product development. Throughout the software industry, several best practices are widely followed. Some of the more commonly used are: an iterative development process, requirement management, quality control, and change control. Capacity Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) is a process improvement training and certification program and service administered and marketed by Carnegie Mellon University and required by many Department of Defense (DOD) and Government programs for government contracts, especially software development. Carnegie Mellon University claims CMMI can be used to guide process improvement across a project, division, or an entire organization. Under the CMMI methodology, processes are rated according to their maturity levels, which are defined as: Initial, Repeatable, Defined, Quantitatively Managed, Optimizing. Currently supported is CMMI Version 1.3. CMMI is registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office by Carnegie Mellon University. Enterprise Storage Service (ESS) ESS represents an industry-leading "Storage as a Service" approach. It encompasses a historic transformation from project-based stove-pipes to a private cloud utility-based model where storage is available as-needed and is paid for only as-used. In June 2012, the IRS awarded the ESS contract to Unisys to transfer ownership of existing data storage arrays, enable tiered high-performance storage and faster storage acquisition and allocation, and capture significant cost savings based on actual data stored rather than total capacity. In March 2013, Phase 2 of the deployment was completed, culminating in ESS storage cloud “Ready For Use,” and the hard work of migrating existing data into this new cloud infrastructure began. Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) The Information Technology Infrastructure Library (ITIL) is a set of practices for IT service management (ITSM) that focuses on aligning IT services with the needs of business. In its current form (known as ITIL 2011 edition), ITIL is published in a series of five core publications, each of which covers an ITSM lifecycle stage. ITIL describes processes, procedures, tasks and checklists that are not organization-specific, used by an organization for establishing integration with the organization's strategy, delivering value and maintaining a minimum level of competency. It allows the organization to establish a baseline from which it can plan, implement, and measure. It is used to demonstrate compliance and to measure improvement. IT service management (ITSM) IT Service Management (ITSM) is a process-based practice intended to align the delivery of information technology (IT) services with needs of the enterprise, emphasizing benefits to customers. ITSM involves a paradigm shift from managing IT as stacks of individual components to focusing on the delivery of end-to-end services using best practice process models. ITIL (Information Technology Infrastructure Library) is a globally recognized collection of best practices for information technology (IT) service management. JavaBeans Open Sources Software Application Server (JBoss) JBoss is a division of Red Hat that provides support for the JBoss open source application server program and related services marketed under the JBoss Enterprise Middleware Suite (JEMS) brand. The JBoss applications server is a J2EE platform for developing and deploying enterprise Java applications, Web applications and services, and portals. J2EE allows the use of standardized modular components and enables the Java platform to handle many aspects of programming automatically. Linux Linux is a Unix-like computer operating system assembled under the model of free and open source software development and distribution. The defining component of Linux is the Linux kernel an operating system kernel first released 5 October 1991 by Linus Torvalds. Typically Linux is packaged in a format known as a Linux distribution for desktop and server use. RACI RACI is a responsibility matrix that describes the participation by various roles in completing the tasks or deliverables for a project or business process. RACI is derived from the four key responsibilities typically used:
Responsible – The person that is assigned to do the work.
Accountable – The person that makes the final decision and has ultimate ownership.
Consulted – The person that must be consulted before a decision or action is taken.
Informed – The person that must be informed that a decision or action has been taken.
URL A uniform resource locator, abbreviated as URL (also known as web address, particularly when used with HTTP), is a specific character string that constitutes a reference to a resource. VPO Enterprise Operations established the Virtualization Project Office to be responsible for:
Leading the virtualization design effort;
Deploying the infrastructure in the Computing Centers and Campuses; and
Collapsing existing virtual environments into the enterprise virtual infrastructure.