The gross tax gap is the difference between true tax liability for a given tax year and the amount that is paid on time. It is comprised of the nonfiling gap, the underreporting gap, and the underpayment (or remittance) gap. The net tax gap is the portion of the gross tax gap that will never be recovered through enforcement or other late payments. The reports listed below are organized into different sections dealing with tax years 2020 and 2021 projections, tax years 2014-2016 estimates (with 2017-2019 projections), tax years 2011–2013 estimates, tax year 2006 estimates, tax year 2001 estimates, and estimates from earlier tax years. Also included is a section containing reports on reducing the tax gap. All files on this page are available in Adobe® PDF format, which requires the free Adobe Acrobat® reader to view and print the file. Tax gap projections for tax years 2020 and 2021 Title Author Publication date Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Projections for Tax Years 2020 and 2021 (Publication 5869)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2023 Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Projections Map for Tax Years 2020 and 2021 (Publication 5870)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2023 Tax gap estimates for tax years 2014-2016 and projections for 2017-2019 Title Author Publication date Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2014–2016 (Publication 1415)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2022 Tax Gap Executive Summary (Publication 5364)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2022 Tax Gap Map (Publication 5365)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2022 The Underpayment Tax Gap for Tax Years 2014–2016 (Publication 5783)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2022 Estimation of the Underreporting Tax Gap for Tax Years 2014–2016: Methodology (Publication 5784)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2022 The Individual Income Tax and Self-Employment Tax Nonfiling Tax Gaps for Tax Years 2014–2016 (Publication 5785)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2022 The Net Tax Gap for Tax Years 2014–2016 (Publication 5786)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics October 2022 Tax gap estimates for tax years 2011-2013 Title Author Publication date Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011–2013 (Publication 1415)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics September 2019 Tax Gap Executive Summary (Publication 5364)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics September 2019 Tax Gap Map (Publication 5365)PDF IRS, Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics September 2019 Tax gap estimates for tax years 2008-2010 Title Author Publication date Written For Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008–2010PDF IRS, Research, Analysis & Statistics May 2016 Publication 1415 (Rev. 5-2016) Tax gap estimates for tax years 2006 Title Author Publication date Written For Overview of the Tax Gap for Tax Year 2006PDF IRS, Office of Research January 2012 Public release Summary of Tax Gap Estimation MethodsPDF IRS, Office of Research January 2012 Public release Tax Gap MapPDF IRS, Office of Research January 2012 Public release Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Year 2006 Tax Gap EstimationPDF IRS, Office of Research March 2012 Research, Analysis, and Statistics Working Paper Estimates of the Tax Year 2006 Individual Income Tax Underreporting GapPDF Kim Bloomquist, Ed Emblom, Drew Johns, and Patrick Langetieg (IRS, Office of Research) June 2012 2012 IRS-TPC Research Conference, Publication 1500 Advances in Nonfiling MeasuresPDF Brian Erard (B. Erard & Associates), Mark Payne and Alan Plumley (IRS, Office of Research) June 2012 2012 IRS-TPC Research Conference, Publication 1500 Tax gap estimates for tax years 2001 Title Author Publication date Written For Tax Year 2001 Federal Tax Gap OverviewPDF IRS, Office of Research February 2007 Public release Tax gap estimates for earlier tax years Title Author Publication date Written For Federal Tax Compliance Research: Individual Income Tax Gap Estimates for 1985, 1988, and 1992PDF IRS, Compliance Research April 1996, revised Publication 1415 Federal Tax Compliance Research: Gross and Net Employment Tax Gap Estimates for 1984–1997PDF IRS, Research Division October 1993, revised Publication 1415-E Income Tax Compliance Research: Net Tax Gap and Remittance Gap EstimatesPDF IRS, Research Division April 1990, revised Publication 1415 Gross Tax Gap Estimates and Projections for 1973-1992PDF IRS, Research Division March 1988 Publication 7285 Tax gap related methods This section includes papers that focus on estimation methods that have been used for estimating the tax gap, though these papers do not contain tax gap estimates. Title Author Publication date Written For Statistical Analysis of Compliance Using the NRP Data: Detection Controlled ModelsPDF Jonathan Feinstein, Yale University June 2004 2004 IRS Research Conference Developing an Econometric Model for Measuring Tax Noncompliance Using Operational Audit DataPDF Brian Erard, B. Erard and Associates, Chih-Chin Ho, IRS August 2002 2002 American Statistical Association Conference Reports on reducing the tax gap These reports have been written by the Department of the Treasury and IRS to describe current and planned efforts to reduce the tax gap. Previously Released News, Facts and Figures A Comprehensive Strategy for Reducing the Tax GapPDF
