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Statistics of Income Working Papers

The Statistics of Income (SOI) working papers present new and exciting research on the U.S. Federal tax system and the methods used to produce tax statistics. Papers are presented at professional conferences, such as the Joint Statistical Meeting of the American Statistical Association and the National Tax Association’s annual conference on taxation, and are often published in professional journals. Below you will find a selection of papers organized by presentation year.

Papers in this series generally do not undergo the extensive review and editorial process accorded official SOI publications. Instead, these working papers are intended to make results of research available to others and to encourage discussion on a variety of topics. As a result, papers may be occasionally revised or updated.

Jump to a year:

1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2011  2013  2014


2014

Early Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts During the Great Recession
Robert Argento, Victoria L. Bryant, John Sabelhaus

Who Benefits from Tax Expenditures on Capital? Evidence on Capital Income and Wealth Concentration
Associated Tables (.xls format)
Emmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley, Gabriel Zucman, LSE

The Returns to the Federal Tax Credits for Higher Education
George B. Bulman, Caroline M. Hoxby

Labor Force Participation Elasticities of Women and Secondary Earners within Married Couples
Robert McClelland, Congressional Budget Office, Shannon Mok, Congressional Budget Office, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service

Older Taxpayers’ Response to Taxation of Social Security Benefits
Leonard Burman, Syracuse University and the Tax Policy Center, Norma B. Coe, University of Washington and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service, Liu Tian, Syracuse University

Over the Top: How Tax Returns Show that the Very Rich Are Different from You and Me
Jenny Bourne and Lisa Rosenmerkel

The Economic Impact of Tax Expenditures: Evidence from Spatial Variation Across the U.S.
Associated Tables (.xls format)
Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and, Patrick Kline and Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research

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2013

The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction and Migratory Insurance Over the Great Recession
Danny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley

Do Financial Frictions Amplify Fiscal Policy? Evidence from Business Investment Stimulus
Eric Zwick and James Mahon, Harvard University

A New Look at the Income-Wealth Connection for America’s Wealthiest Decedents
Barry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS

A Comparison of Wealth Estimates For America’s Wealthiest Decedents Using Tax Data and Data From The Forbes 400
Barry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS

Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut
Danny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley

Do Tax Credits for Parents Affect Child College Enrollment?
Nathaniel G. Hilger, Brown University

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2011

New Evidence on the Long-Term Impacts of Tax Credits
Raj Chetty and JohnFriedman, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and Jonah Rockoff, Columbia University and the National Bureau of Economic Research

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2009

Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli Samples
Henry, Kimberly; Testa, Valerie; Valliant, Richard

The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative Analysis
Raub, Brian; Belmonte, Cynthia; Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa

Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli Samples
Kimberly Henry and Valerie Testa, Internal Revenue Service and Richard Valliant, University of Michigan

The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative Analysis
Brian Raub, Cynthia Belmonte, Paul Arnsberger, and Melissa Ludlum, Internal Revenue Service

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2008

Dissemination Of Statistical Products: The IRS’s Journey
Gangi, Martha Eller

Attrition in the Individual Income Tax Return Panel, Tax Years 1999–2005
Bryant, Victoria

Statistics of Income Sales of Capital Assets Sample Redesign for Tax Year 2007
Liu, Yan; Scali, Jana; Strudler, Michael; Wilson, Janette

90 Years of SOI: A Collection of Historical Articles
Multiple Authors

Using Audit Data To Estimate Taxpayer Reporting Error in the Statistics of Income Division's Individual Tax Return Sample
Henry, Kimberly

Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax Data
Johnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin

Old Tabulations, Old Files, and a Brief History of Individual Tax Return Sampling
Weber, Michael; Paris, David; Sailer, Peter

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2007

Measuring Disclosure Risk and an Examination of the Possibilities of Using Synthetic Data in the Individual Income Tax Return Public Use File
Vartivarian, Sonya; Czajka, John; Weber, Michael

Measuring the Quality of Service to Taxpayers in Volunteer Sites
Cecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald; Hooker, Rachael

SOI Develops Better Survey Questions Through Pretesting
Milleville, Diane; Wells, Tara

Using the Statistics of Income Division's Sample Data To Reduce Measurement and Processing Error in Small-Area Estimates Produced from Administrative Tax Records
Henry, Kimberly; Lahiri, Partha; Fisher, Robin

An Empirical Evaluation of Various Direct, Synthetic, and Traditional Composite Small-Area Estimators
Henry, Kimberly; Strudler, Michael; Chen, William

Evaluating Alternative One-Sided Coverage Intervals for an Extreme Binomial Proportion
Liu, Yan; Kott, Phillip

Improving the Quality of U.S. Tax Statistics: Recent Innovations in Editing and Imputation Techniques at the Statistics of Income Division of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service
Scott M. Hollenbeck, Melissa Ludlum, and Barry W. Johnson, Internal Revenue Service

Using an Individual Income Tax Panel File To Measure Changes in Marginal Tax Rates: Opportunities
Diamond, John; Rector, Ralph; Weber, Michael

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2006

Social Security Taxes, Social Security Benefits, and Social Security Benefits Taxation, 2003
Sailer, Peter; Pierce, Kevin; Lomize, Evgenia

Analysis of the Distributions of Income, Taxes, and Payroll Taxes via Cross Section and Panel Data, 1979–2004
Strudler, Michael; Hentz, Lori; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

Performance Measurement within the Statistics of Income Division
Cecco, Kevin

Customer Satisfaction Initiatives at IRS’s Statistics of Income: Using Surveys to Improve Customer Service
Schwartz, Ruth; Kilss, Beth

Tying Website Performance to Mission Achievement in the Federal Government
Milleville, Diane

The Tax Year 1999–2003 Individual Income Tax Return Panel: A First Look at the Data
Weber, Michael

Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm to Multivariate Optimal Allocation in Stratified Sample Designs
Day, Charles

Factors in Estates’ Utilization of Special Tax Provisions for Family-Owned Farms and Closely Held Businesses
Gangi, Martha Eller; Henry, Kimberly; Raub, Brian

Corporation Life Cycles: Examining Attrition Trends and Return Characteristics in Statistics of Income Cross-Sectional 1120 Samples
Matthew L. Scoffic

An Analysis of the Free File Program
Chu, Michelle; Kovalick, Melissa

Comparing Strategies To Estimate a Measure of Heteroscedasticity
Henry, Kimberly; Valliant, Richard

Creativity and Compromise: Constructing a Panel of Income and Estate Tax Data for Wealthy Individuals
Johnson, Barry; Schreiber, Lisa

Monitoring Statistics of Income (SOI) Samples
Koshansky, Joseph

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2005

Trends in 401(k) and IRA Contribution Activity, 1999–2002—Results from a Panel of Matched Tax Returns and Information Documents
Sailer, Peter; Bryant, Victoria Holden, Sarah

The 1999 Individual Income Tax Return Edited Panel
Weber, Michael; Bryant, Victoria

A Cluster Analysis Approach To Describing Tax Data
Raub, Brian; Chen, William

Origins of the Estate and Personal Wealth Sample Design
McMahon, Paul

Corporation Supercritical Cases: How Do Imputed Returns on the Corporate File Compare to the Actual Returns?
Davitian, Lucy

Internal Revenue Service Area-To-Area Migration Data: Strengths, Limitations, and Current Trends
Gross, Emily

A Comparison of Income Concepts: IRS Statistics of Income, Census Current Population Survey, and BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey
Henry, Eric; Day, Charles

Measuring Nonsampling Error in the Statistics of Income Individual Tax Return Study
Scali, Jana; Testa, Valerie; Kahr, Maureen; Strudler, Michael

The Impact of the Followup Process on the 2002 Foreign Tax Credit Study Data
Singmaster, Rob; Redmiles, Lissa

Prelude to Schedule M–3: Schedule M–1 Corporate Book-Tax Difference Data, 1990–2003
Boynton, Charles; DeFilippes, Portia; Legel, Ellen

An Essay on the Effects of Taxation on the Corporate Financial Policy
Contos, George

An Analysis of Business Organizational Structure and Activity from Tax Data
Petska, Tom; Parisi, Michael; Luttrell, Kelly; Davitian, Lucy; Scoffic, Matt

Geographic Variation in Schedule H Filing Rates: Why Should Location Influence the Decision To Report Nanny Taxes?
Bloomquist, Kim; An, Zhiyong

Current Research in the Nonprofit Sector
Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa; Riley, Margaret

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2004

Use of Individual Retirement Arrangements to Save for Retirement—Results From a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Documents for Tax Year 2001
Sailer, Peter; Holden, Sarah

Further Analysis of the Distribution of Income and Taxes, 1979–2003
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

The Statistics of Income 1979–2002 Continuous Work History Sample Individual Income Tax Return Panel
Weber, Michael

Assessing Industry Codes on the IRS Business Master File
McMahon, Paul

Customer Satisfaction Initiatives within the Statistics of Income Division of the Internal Revenue Service
Cecco, Kevin

The Evolution of IRS Telephone Quality Measures
Rosage, Laura

Some New Tables for Upper Probability Points of the Largest Root of a Determinantal Equation
Chen, William

Editor Judgment Effect: Modeling a Key Component of Nonsampling Error in Administrative Data
Henry, Kimberly; Ahmed, Yahia; Legel, Ellen

The Effect of Content Errors on Bias and Nonsampling Variance in Estimates Derived From Samples
Johnson, Barry; Jacobson,Darien B.

Data Interpretation across Sources: A Study of Form 990–PF Information Collected from Multiple Databases
Ludlum, Melissa

Recent Research on Small Business Compliance Burden
Guyton, John; Kindlon, Audrey; Zhou, Jian

The Mismeasure of Man’s Well-Being: Refining Realized Income Measures with Wealth, Portfolio, and Mortality Information
Johnson, Barry; Wahl, Jenny

Tax Evasion and Entrepreneurship: The Effect of Income Reporting Policies on Evasion. An Experimental Approach
Alm, James; Deskins, John; McKee, Michael

Audit Information Dissemination, Taxpayer Communication and Tax Compliance: An Experimental Investigation of Indirect Audit Effects
Alm, James; Jackson, Betty; McKee, Michael

Multi-Agent Based Simulation of the Deterrent Effects of Taxpayer Audits
Bloomquist, Kim

Developing Adoptable Disclosure Protection Techniques: Lessons Learned From a U.S. Experience
Greenia, Nicholas

Consider the Source: Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax Data
Johnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin

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2003

The Effects of Tax Reform on the Structure of U.S. Business
Legel, Ellen; Bennett, Kelly; Parisi, Michael

Accumulation and Distributions of Retirement Assets, 1996–2000—Results from a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Returns
Sailer, Peter; Gurka, Kurt; Holden, Sarah

An Analysis of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes, 1979–2001
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

IRS Seeks to Develop New Web-Based Measurement Indicators for IRS.gov
Dixon, Diane

Statistical Information Services at IRS: Improving Dissemination of Data and Satisfying the Customer
Kilss, Beth; Jordan, David

Recent Efforts to Maximize Benefits from the Statistics of Income Advisory Panel
Petska, Tom; Kilss, Beth

Regulatory Exemptions and Item Nonresponse
McMahon, Paul

Comparing Scoring Systems From Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis Using Random Samples
Wong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin

Estimating the Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income Tax
Toder, Eric J.; Guyton, John; O'Hare, John; Stavrianos, Michael

Tax Evasion, Income Inequality and Opportunity Costs of Compliance
Bloomquist, Kim

IRS's Comprehensive Approach to Compliance Measurement
Brown, Robert; Mazur, Mark

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2002

Salaries and Wages and Deferred Income, 1989–1999
Sailer, Peter; Yau, Ellen; Gurka, Kurt; Weber, Michael

Proxies in Administrative Records Surveys
McMahon, Paul

Assessing Disclosure Protection for a SOI Public Use File
Winglee, Marianne; Valliant, Richard; Clark, Jay; Lim, Yunhee; Weber, Michael; Strudler, Michael

Electronic Dissemination of Internal Revenue Service Locality Data
Gross, Emily; Kilss, Beth

Analysis of the 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study
Eller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara

Evaluating the Effect of Sample Size Changes on Scoring System Performance Using Bootstraps and Random Samples
Wong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin

Using Auxiliary Information to Adjust for Non-Response in Weighting a Linked Sample of Administrative Records
Johnson, Barry: McMahon, Paul

Developing an Econometric Model for Measuring Tax Noncompliance Using Operational Audit Data
Erard, Brian; Ho, Chih-Chin

Some New Tables of the Largest Root of a Matrix in Multivariate Analysis: A Computer Approach from 2 to 6
Chen, William

Are Taxpayers Increasing the Buildup of Retirement Assets? Preliminary Results from a Matched File of Tax Year 1999 Tax Returns and Information Returns
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Gurka, Kurt

New Estimates of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

How the Quality of Responses the IRS Provides to Taxpayer Inquiries is Measured
Cecco, Kevin; Hoopengardner, Rachael

The Impact of the IRS on Voluntary Tax Compliance: Preliminary Empirical Results
Plumley, Alan

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2001

Taxing Charity: Linking Income Tax Returns to Samples of Nonexempt Charitable and Charitable Remainder
Belvedere, Melissa; Mikow, Jacob; Whitten, Melissa

The 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study: Using The IRS Returns Transaction File as a Sample Frame
Eller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara

Sample Design Revisions in the Wake of NAICS and Regulatory Changes
McMahon, Paul

Statistical Information from Administrative Records in the Federal Tax System
Petska, Tom

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2000

Exporting a Statistical System: Towards Establishing a Tax Statistics Function in South Africa
Petska, Tom

Beyond Andrew Carnegie: Using a Linked Sample of Federal Income and Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Bequests on Beneficiary Behavior
Mikow, Jacob; Berkowitz, Darien

Statistical Consulting Within the Internal Revenue Service
Cecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald

Attrition in a Panel of Individual Income Tax Returns, 1992–1997
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Wong, William

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1999

The Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes: A New Look at an Old Issue
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike

Personal Wealth, 1995
Johnson, Barry

Further Examination of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes Using a Consistent and Comprehensive Measure of Income
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike; Petska, Ryan

Customer Service Satisfaction Survey: Cognitive and Prototype Test
Cecco, Kevin; Young, Anthony

On Computing Gaussian Curvature of Some Well Known Distributions
Chen, William

The Feasiblity of State Corporate Data
Francis, Brian

Using a Sample of Federal Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Audit Revaluation on Pre-Audit Estimates
Eller, Martha Britton; Johnson, Barry

Occupation and Industry Data from Tax Year 1993 Individual Tax Returns
Sailer, Peter; Nuriddin, Terry

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1998

Income, Tax, and Tax Progressivity: An Examination of Recent Trends in the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike

Updating Techniques for Estimating Wealth from Federal Estate Tax Returns
Johnson, Barry

The IRS Population Count: An Update
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael

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1997

Taxes and Business Organizational Choice: Deja Vu All Over Again?
Petska, Tom

Partnerships in Data Sharing: The Internal Revenue Service and the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Petska, Tom

Federal Taxation of Inheritance and Wealth Transfers
Johnson, Barry; Eller, Martha Britton

Household and Individual Income Data from Tax Returns
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael

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Page Last Reviewed or Updated: 18-Nov-2014