The Statistics of Income (SOI) working papers present new and exciting research on the U.S. Federal tax system and the methods used to produce tax statistics. Papers are presented at professional conferences, such as the Joint Statistical Meeting of the American Statistical Association and the National Tax Association's annual conference on taxation, and are often published in professional journals. Below you will find a selection of papers organized by presentation year.

Papers in this series generally do not undergo the extensive review and editorial process accorded official SOI publications. Instead, these working papers are intended to make results of research available to others and to encourage discussion on a variety of topics. As a result, papers may be occasionally revised or updated.

Jump to a year:

1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2011  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019  2020  2021 2022


2022

The Impact of Criminal Records on Employment, Earnings, and Tax FilingPDF
Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alexandre Mas, and Crystal S. Yang

The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax FilingPDF
Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver

New Work or Changes in Reporting? A Framework for Measuring Self-Employment Trends in Administrative DataPDF
Andrew Garin, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Emilie Jackson, Michigan State University, and Dmitri Koustas, University of Chicago

Back to the top

2021

Comparing the Current Population Survey to Income Tax DataPDF
Peter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company Institute
Supplemental TableXLSX

The Distribution of Independent Contractor Activity in the United States: Evidence from Tax FilingsPDF
Andrew Garin, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, and Dmitri Koustas, University of Chicago
Supplemental TableXLSX

Citizenship and taxes: Evaluating the effects of the U.S. tax system on individuals’ citizenship decisionsPDF
Paul R. Organ, University of Michigan

Back to the top

2020

Incorporating Financial Statement Information to Improve Forecasts of Corporate Taxable IncomePDF
Danielle H. Green, Fordham University; Erin E. Henry, University of Arkansas; Sarah M. Parsons, Sacred Heart University; George A. Plesko, University of Connecticut

Decoding Retirement: A Detailed Look at Retirement Distributions Reported on Tax ReturnsPDF
Peter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company Institute

Supplemental Table 1XLSX | Supplemental Table 2XLSX

Reconciling Form 1040 and Form 1099-R DataPDF
Peter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company Institute

Heard it through the Grapevine: The Direct and Network Effects of a Tax Enforcement Field Experiment on Firms PDF
William C. Boning, University of Michigan, John Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Ronald Hodge, Internal Revenue Service, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan

Back to the top

2019

The Effects of EITC Correspondence Audits on Low-Income EarnersPDF
John Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Kara Leibel, Internal Revenue Service, Day Manoli, UT-Austin, Ankur Patel, Treasury, Mark Payne, Internal Revenue Service, Brenda Schafer, Internal Revenue Service

Taxing Hidden Wealth: The Consequences of U.S. Enforcement Initiatives on Evasive Foreign AccountsPDF
Niels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen, Patrick Langetieg, Internal Revenue Service, Daniel Reck, London School of Economics, Max Risch, Princeton University, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan

Independent Contractors in the U.S.: New Trends from 15 years of Administrative Tax DataPDF
Katherine Lim, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Alicia Miller, Internal Revenue Service, Max Risch, University of Michigan, and Eleanor Wilking, New York University

Is Gig Work Replacing Traditional Employment? Evidence from Two Decades of Tax ReturnsPDF
Brett Collins, Andrew Garin, Emilie Jackson, Dmitri Koustas, and Mark Payne

Income Volatility, Taxation and the Functioning of the U.S. Labor MarketPDF
Thibaut Lamadon, University of Chicago, Magne Mogstad, University of Chicago, Statistics Norway, NBER and IFS, and Bradley Setzler, University of Chicago

Taxes and Retirement Decisions Among Women And Secondary EarnersPDF
Robert McClelland, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, John Iselin, UC Berkeley, Kevin Pierce, IRS Statistics of Income, and Philip Stallworth, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center

Back to the top

2018

Creating Homogeneous Synthetic Individual Tax Files for Distributional AnalysisPDF
Associated Data
Emmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Gabriel Zucman, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research

Back to the top

2017

Online Postsecondary Education and the Higher Education Tax Benefits: An Analysis with Implications for Tax AdministrationPDF
Caroline M. Hoxby

IRS Behavioral Insights ToolkitPDF
multiple authors

Using Panel Tax Data to Examine the Transition to RetirementPDF
Associated TablesXLS (.xls format)
Peter J. Brady, Steven Bass, Jessica Holland, Kevin Pierce

Back to the top

2016

Statistics of Income Tabulations: High Incomes, Gender, Age, Earnings Split, and Non-filersPDF
Associated TablesXLS
(.xls format)
Emmanuel Saez

Comparing Survey Data and Tax Data: Differences in Reporting across BusinessesPDF
Tami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, E.J. Reedy, Josh Russell

A Tale of Two Datasets: Business Survival in Administrative versus Survey DataPDF
Tami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, John A. Deskins, Brian Hill

Back to the top

2015

How Tax Credits for Higher Education Affect College-GoingPDF
Caroline M. Hoxby, George B. Bulman

New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility Using Administrative DataPDF
Pablo A. Mitnik, Victoria L. Bryant, Michael Weber, David B. Grusky

Donor-Advised Funds: An Overview Using IRS DataPDF
Paul Arnsberger

Back to the top

2014

Early Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts During the Great RecessionPDF
Robert Argento, Victoria L. Bryant, John Sabelhaus

Who Benefits from Tax Expenditures on Capital? Evidence on Capital Income and Wealth ConcentrationPDF
Associated TablesXLS (.xls format)
Emmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley, Gabriel Zucman, LSE

The Returns to the Federal Tax Credits for Higher EducationPDF
George B. Bulman, Caroline M. Hoxby

Labor Force Participation Elasticities of Women and Secondary Earners within Married CouplesPDF
Robert McClelland, Congressional Budget Office, Shannon Mok, Congressional Budget Office, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service

Older Taxpayers' Response to Taxation of Social Security BenefitsPDF
Leonard Burman, Syracuse University and the Tax Policy Center, Norma B. Coe, University of Washington and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service, Liu Tian, Syracuse University

Over the Top: How Tax Returns Show that the Very Rich Are Different from You and MePDF
Jenny Bourne and Lisa Rosenmerkel

The Economic Impact of Tax Expenditures: Evidence from Spatial Variation Across the U.S.PDF
Associated Tables - excluding Table VII and Table XXZIP (.zip format)
Appendix Table VIIZIP (.zip format)
Appendix Table XX
Associated FiguresPDF
Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and, Patrick Kline and Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research

Back to the top

2013

The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction and Migratory Insurance Over the Great RecessionPDF
Danny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley

Do Financial Frictions Amplify Fiscal Policy? Evidence from Business Investment StimulusPDF
Eric Zwick and James Mahon, Harvard University

A New Look at the Income-Wealth Connection for America's Wealthiest DecedentsPDF
Barry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS

A Comparison of Wealth Estimates For America's Wealthiest Decedents Using Tax Data and Data From The Forbes 400PDF
Barry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS

Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax CutPDF
Danny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley

Do Tax Credits for Parents Affect Child College Enrollment?PDF
Nathaniel G. Hilger, Brown University

Back to the top

2011

New Evidence on the Long-Term Impacts of Tax CreditsPDF
Raj Chetty and JohnFriedman, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and Jonah Rockoff, Columbia University and the National Bureau of Economic Research

Back to the top

2009

Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli SamplesPDF
Henry, Kimberly; Testa, Valerie; Valliant, Richard

The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative AnalysisPDF
Raub, Brian; Belmonte, Cynthia; Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa

Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli SamplesPDF
Kimberly Henry and Valerie Testa, Internal Revenue Service and Richard Valliant, University of Michigan

The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative AnalysisPDF
Brian Raub, Cynthia Belmonte, Paul Arnsberger, and Melissa Ludlum, Internal Revenue Service

Back to the top

2008

Dissemination Of Statistical Products: The IRS's JourneyPDF
Gangi, Martha Eller

Attrition in the Individual Income Tax Return Panel, Tax Years 1999–2005PDF
Bryant, Victoria

Statistics of Income Sales of Capital Assets Sample Redesign for Tax Year 2007PDF
Liu, Yan; Scali, Jana; Strudler, Michael; Wilson, Janette

90 Years of SOI: A Collection of Historical ArticlesPDF
Multiple Authors

Using Audit Data To Estimate Taxpayer Reporting Error in the Statistics of Income Division's Individual Tax Return SamplePDF
Henry, Kimberly

Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax DataPDF
Johnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin

Old Tabulations, Old Files, and a Brief History of Individual Tax Return SamplingPDF
Weber, Michael; Paris, David; Sailer, Peter

Back to the top

2007

Measuring Disclosure Risk and an Examination of the Possibilities of Using Synthetic Data in the Individual Income Tax Return Public Use FilePDF
Vartivarian, Sonya; Czajka, John; Weber, Michael

Measuring the Quality of Service to Taxpayers in Volunteer SitesPDF
Cecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald; Hooker, Rachael

SOI Develops Better Survey Questions Through PretestingPDF
Milleville, Diane; Wells, Tara

Using the Statistics of Income Division's Sample Data To Reduce Measurement and Processing Error in Small-Area Estimates Produced from Administrative Tax RecordsPDF
Henry, Kimberly; Lahiri, Partha; Fisher, Robin

An Empirical Evaluation of Various Direct, Synthetic, and Traditional Composite Small-Area EstimatorsPDF
Henry, Kimberly; Strudler, Michael; Chen, William

Evaluating Alternative One-Sided Coverage Intervals for an Extreme Binomial ProportionPDF
Liu, Yan; Kott, Phillip

Improving the Quality of U.S. Tax Statistics: Recent Innovations in Editing and Imputation Techniques at the Statistics of Income Division of the U.S. Internal Revenue ServicePDF
Scott M. Hollenbeck, Melissa Ludlum, and Barry W. Johnson, Internal Revenue Service

Using an Individual Income Tax Panel File To Measure Changes in Marginal Tax Rates: OpportunitiesPDF
Diamond, John; Rector, Ralph; Weber, Michael

Back to the top

2006

Social Security Taxes, Social Security Benefits, and Social Security Benefits Taxation, 2003PDF
Sailer, Peter; Pierce, Kevin; Lomize, Evgenia

Analysis of the Distributions of Income, Taxes, and Payroll Taxes via Cross Section and Panel Data, 1979–2004PDF
Strudler, Michael; Hentz, Lori; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

Performance Measurement within the Statistics of Income DivisionPDF
Cecco, Kevin

Customer Satisfaction Initiatives at IRS's Statistics of Income: Using Surveys to Improve Customer ServicePDF
Schwartz, Ruth; Kilss, Beth

Tying Website Performance to Mission Achievement in the Federal GovernmentPDF
Milleville, Diane

The Tax Year 1999–2003 Individual Income Tax Return Panel: A First Look at the DataPDF
Weber, Michael

Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm to Multivariate Optimal Allocation in Stratified Sample DesignsPDF
Day, Charles

Factors in Estates' Utilization of Special Tax Provisions for Family-Owned Farms and Closely Held BusinessesPDF
Gangi, Martha Eller; Henry, Kimberly; Raub, Brian

Corporation Life Cycles: Examining Attrition Trends and Return Characteristics in Statistics of Income Cross-Sectional 1120 SamplesPDF
Matthew L. Scoffic

An Analysis of the Free File ProgramPDF
Chu, Michelle; Kovalick, Melissa

Comparing Strategies To Estimate a Measure of HeteroscedasticityPDF
Henry, Kimberly; Valliant, Richard

Creativity and Compromise: Constructing a Panel of Income and Estate Tax Data for Wealthy IndividualsPDF
Johnson, Barry; Schreiber, Lisa

Monitoring Statistics of Income (SOI) SamplesPDF
Koshansky, Joseph

Back to the top

2005

Trends in 401(k) and IRA Contribution Activity, 1999–2002—Results from a Panel of Matched Tax Returns and Information DocumentsPDF
Sailer, Peter; Bryant, Victoria Holden, Sarah

The 1999 Individual Income Tax Return Edited PanelPDF
Weber, Michael; Bryant, Victoria

A Cluster Analysis Approach To Describing Tax DataPDF
Raub, Brian; Chen, William

Origins of the Estate and Personal Wealth Sample DesignPDF
McMahon, Paul

Corporation Supercritical Cases: How Do Imputed Returns on the Corporate File Compare to the Actual Returns?PDF
Davitian, Lucy

Internal Revenue Service Area-To-Area Migration Data: Strengths, Limitations, and Current TrendsPDF
Gross, Emily

A Comparison of Income Concepts: IRS Statistics of Income, Census Current Population Survey, and BLS Consumer Expenditure SurveyPDF
Henry, Eric; Day, Charles

Measuring Nonsampling Error in the Statistics of Income Individual Tax Return StudyPDF
Scali, Jana; Testa, Valerie; Kahr, Maureen; Strudler, Michael

The Impact of the Followup Process on the 2002 Foreign Tax Credit Study DataPDF
Singmaster, Rob; Redmiles, Lissa

Prelude to Schedule M–3: Schedule M–1 Corporate Book-Tax Difference Data, 1990–2003PDF
Boynton, Charles; DeFilippes, Portia; Legel, Ellen

An Essay on the Effects of Taxation on the Corporate Financial PolicyPDF
Contos, George

An Analysis of Business Organizational Structure and Activity from Tax DataPDF
Petska, Tom; Parisi, Michael; Luttrell, Kelly; Davitian, Lucy; Scoffic, Matt

Geographic Variation in Schedule H Filing Rates: Why Should Location Influence the Decision To Report Nanny Taxes?PDF
Bloomquist, Kim; An, Zhiyong

Current Research in the Nonprofit SectorPDF
Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa; Riley, Margaret

Back to the top

2004

Use of Individual Retirement Arrangements to Save for Retirement—Results From a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Documents for Tax Year 2001PDF
Sailer, Peter; Holden, Sarah

Further Analysis of the Distribution of Income and Taxes, 1979–2003PDF
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

The Statistics of Income 1979–2002 Continuous Work History Sample Individual Income Tax Return PanelPDF
Weber, Michael

Assessing Industry Codes on the IRS Business Master FilePDF
McMahon, Paul

Customer Satisfaction Initiatives within the Statistics of Income Division of the Internal Revenue ServicePDF
Cecco, Kevin

The Evolution of IRS Telephone Quality MeasuresPDF
Rosage, Laura

Some New Tables for Upper Probability Points of the Largest Root of a Determinantal EquationPDF
Chen, William

Editor Judgment Effect: Modeling a Key Component of Nonsampling Error in Administrative DataPDF
Henry, Kimberly; Ahmed, Yahia; Legel, Ellen

The Effect of Content Errors on Bias and Nonsampling Variance in Estimates Derived From SamplesPDF
Johnson, Barry; Jacobson,Darien B.

Data Interpretation across Sources: A Study of Form 990–PF Information Collected from Multiple DatabasesPDF
Ludlum, Melissa

Recent Research on Small Business Compliance BurdenPDF
Guyton, John; Kindlon, Audrey; Zhou, Jian

The Mismeasure of Man's Well-Being: Refining Realized Income Measures with Wealth, Portfolio, and Mortality InformationPDF
Johnson, Barry; Wahl, Jenny

Tax Evasion and Entrepreneurship: The Effect of Income Reporting Policies on Evasion. An Experimental ApproachPDF
Alm, James; Deskins, John; McKee, Michael

Audit Information Dissemination, Taxpayer Communication and Tax Compliance: An Experimental Investigation of Indirect Audit EffectsPDF
Alm, James; Jackson, Betty; McKee, Michael

Multi-Agent Based Simulation of the Deterrent Effects of Taxpayer AuditsPDF
Bloomquist, Kim

Developing Adoptable Disclosure Protection Techniques: Lessons Learned From a U.S. ExperiencePDF
Greenia, Nicholas

Consider the Source: Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax DataPDF
Johnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin

Back to the top

2003

The Effects of Tax Reform on the Structure of U.S. BusinessPDF
Legel, Ellen; Bennett, Kelly; Parisi, Michael

Accumulation and Distributions of Retirement Assets, 1996–2000—Results from a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information ReturnsPDF
Sailer, Peter; Gurka, Kurt; Holden, Sarah

An Analysis of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes, 1979–2001PDF
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

IRS Seeks to Develop New Web-Based Measurement Indicators for IRS.govPDF
Dixon, Diane

Statistical Information Services at IRS: Improving Dissemination of Data and Satisfying the CustomerPDF
Kilss, Beth; Jordan, David

Recent Efforts to Maximize Benefits from the Statistics of Income Advisory PanelPDF
Petska, Tom; Kilss, Beth

Regulatory Exemptions and Item NonresponsePDF
McMahon, Paul

Comparing Scoring Systems From Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis Using Random SamplesPDF
Wong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin

Estimating the Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income TaxPDF
Toder, Eric J.; Guyton, John; O'Hare, John; Stavrianos, Michael

Tax Evasion, Income Inequality and Opportunity Costs of CompliancePDF
Bloomquist, Kim

IRS's Comprehensive Approach to Compliance MeasurementPDF
Brown, Robert; Mazur, Mark

Back to the top

2002

Salaries and Wages and Deferred Income, 1989–1999PDF
Sailer, Peter; Yau, Ellen; Gurka, Kurt; Weber, Michael

Proxies in Administrative Records SurveysPDF
McMahon, Paul

Assessing Disclosure Protection for a SOI Public Use FilePDF
Winglee, Marianne; Valliant, Richard; Clark, Jay; Lim, Yunhee; Weber, Michael; Strudler, Michael

Electronic Dissemination of Internal Revenue Service Locality DataPDF
Gross, Emily; Kilss, Beth

Analysis of the 1998 Gift Tax Panel StudyPDF
Eller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara

Evaluating the Effect of Sample Size Changes on Scoring System Performance Using Bootstraps and Random SamplesPDF
Wong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin

Using Auxiliary Information to Adjust for Non-Response in Weighting a Linked Sample of Administrative RecordsPDF
Johnson, Barry: McMahon, Paul

Developing an Econometric Model for Measuring Tax Noncompliance Using Operational Audit DataPDF
Erard, Brian; Ho, Chih-Chin

Some New Tables of the Largest Root of a Matrix in Multivariate Analysis: A Computer Approach from 2 to 6PDF
Chen, William

Are Taxpayers Increasing the Buildup of Retirement Assets? Preliminary Results from a Matched File of Tax Year 1999 Tax Returns and Information ReturnsPDF
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Gurka, Kurt

New Estimates of the Distribution of Individual Income and TaxesPDF
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan

How the Quality of Responses the IRS Provides to Taxpayer Inquiries is MeasuredPDF
Cecco, Kevin; Hoopengardner, Rachael

The Impact of the IRS on Voluntary Tax Compliance: Preliminary Empirical ResultsPDF
Plumley, Alan

Back to the top

2001

Taxing Charity: Linking Income Tax Returns to Samples of Nonexempt Charitable and Charitable RemainderPDF
Belvedere, Melissa; Mikow, Jacob; Whitten, Melissa

The 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study: Using The IRS Returns Transaction File as a Sample FramePDF
Eller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara

Sample Design Revisions in the Wake of NAICS and Regulatory ChangesPDF
McMahon, Paul

Statistical Information from Administrative Records in the Federal Tax SystemPDF
Petska, Tom

Back to the top

2000

Exporting a Statistical System: Towards Establishing a Tax Statistics Function in South AfricaPDF
Petska, Tom

Beyond Andrew Carnegie: Using a Linked Sample of Federal Income and Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Bequests on Beneficiary BehaviorPDF
Mikow, Jacob; Berkowitz, Darien

Statistical Consulting Within the Internal Revenue ServicePDF
Cecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald

Attrition in a Panel of Individual Income Tax Returns, 1992–1997PDF
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Wong, William

Back to the top

1999

The Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes: A New Look at an Old IssuePDF
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike

Personal Wealth, 1995
Johnson, Barry

Further Examination of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes Using a Consistent and Comprehensive Measure of IncomePDF
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike; Petska, Ryan

Customer Service Satisfaction Survey: Cognitive and Prototype TestPDF
Cecco, Kevin; Young, Anthony

On Computing Gaussian Curvature of Some Well Known DistributionsPDF
Chen, William

The Feasiblity of State Corporate DataPDF
Francis, Brian

Using a Sample of Federal Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Audit Revaluation on Pre-Audit EstimatesPDF
Eller, Martha Britton; Johnson, Barry

Occupation and Industry Data from Tax Year 1993 Individual Tax ReturnsPDF
Sailer, Peter; Nuriddin, Terry

Back to the top

1998

Income, Tax, and Tax Progressivity: An Examination of Recent Trends in the Distribution of Individual Income and TaxesPDF
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike

Updating Techniques for Estimating Wealth from Federal Estate Tax ReturnsPDF
Johnson, Barry

The IRS Population Count: An UpdatePDF
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael

Back to the top

1997

Taxes and Business Organizational Choice: Deja Vu All Over Again?PDF
Petska, Tom

Partnerships in Data Sharing: The Internal Revenue Service and the Bureau of Economic AnalysisPDF
Petska, Tom

Federal Taxation of Inheritance and Wealth TransfersPDF
Johnson, Barry; Eller, Martha Britton

Back to the top