The Statistics of Income (SOI) working papers present new and exciting research on the U.S. Federal tax system and the methods used to produce tax statistics. Papers are presented at professional conferences, such as the Joint Statistical Meeting of the American Statistical Association and the National Tax Association's annual conference on taxation, and are often published in professional journals. Below you will find a selection of papers organized by presentation year. Papers in this series generally do not undergo the extensive review and editorial process accorded official SOI publications. Instead, these working papers are intended to make results of research available to others and to encourage discussion on a variety of topics. As a result, papers may be occasionally revised or updated. Jump to a year: 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 The Distribution of Independent Contractor Activity in the United States: Evidence from Tax FilingsAndrew Garin, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, and Dmitri Koustas, University of ChicagoSupplemental Table Citizenship and taxes: Evaluating the effects of the U.S. tax system on individuals’ citizenship decisionsPaul R. Organ, University of Michigan Back to the top 2020 Incorporating Financial Statement Information to Improve Forecasts of Corporate Taxable IncomeDanielle H. Green, Fordham University; Erin E. Henry, University of Arkansas; Sarah M. Parsons, Sacred Heart University; George A. Plesko, University of Connecticut Decoding Retirement: A Detailed Look at Retirement Distributions Reported on Tax ReturnsPeter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company InstituteSupplemental Table 1 | Supplemental Table 2Reconciling Form 1040 and Form 1099-R DataPeter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company Institute Heard it through the Grapevine: The Direct and Network Effects of a Tax Enforcement Field Experiment on Firms William C. Boning, University of Michigan, John Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Ronald Hodge, Internal Revenue Service, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan Back to the top 2019 The Effects of EITC Correspondence Audits on Low-Income EarnersJohn Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Kara Leibel, Internal Revenue Service, Day Manoli, UT-Austin, Ankur Patel, Treasury, Mark Payne, Internal Revenue Service, Brenda Schafer, Internal Revenue Service Taxing Hidden Wealth: The Consequences of U.S. Enforcement Initiatives on Evasive Foreign AccountsNiels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen, Patrick Langetieg, Internal Revenue Service, Daniel Reck, London School of Economics, Max Risch, Princeton University, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan Independent Contractors in the U.S.: New Trends from 15 years of Administrative Tax DataKatherine Lim, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Alicia Miller, Internal Revenue Service, Max Risch, University of Michigan, and Eleanor Wilking, New York University Is Gig Work Replacing Traditional Employment? Evidence from Two Decades of Tax ReturnsBrett Collins, Andrew Garin, Emilie Jackson, Dmitri Koustas, and Mark Payne Income Volatility, Taxation and the Functioning of the U.S. Labor MarketThibaut Lamadon, University of Chicago, Magne Mogstad, University of Chicago, Statistics Norway, NBER and IFS, and Bradley Setzler, University of Chicago Taxes and Retirement Decisions Among Women And Secondary EarnersRobert McClelland, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, John Iselin, UC Berkeley, Kevin Pierce, IRS Statistics of Income, and Philip Stallworth, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Back to the top 2018 Creating Homogeneous Synthetic Individual Tax Files for Distributional AnalysisAssociated DataEmmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Gabriel Zucman, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research Back to the top 2017 Online Postsecondary Education and the Higher Education Tax Benefits: An Analysis with Implications for Tax AdministrationCaroline M. Hoxby IRS Behavioral Insights Toolkit multiple authors Using Panel Tax Data to Examine the Transition to RetirementAssociated Tables (.xls format)Peter J. Brady, Steven Bass, Jessica Holland, Kevin Pierce Back to the top 2016 Statistics of Income Tabulations: High Incomes, Gender, Age, Earnings Split, and Non-filersAssociated Tables (.xls format)Emmanuel Saez Comparing Survey Data and Tax Data: Differences in Reporting across BusinessesTami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, E.J. Reedy, Josh Russell A Tale of Two Datasets: Business Survival in Administrative versus Survey DataTami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, John A. Deskins, Brian Hill Back to the top 2015 How Tax Credits for Higher Education Affect College-GoingCaroline M. Hoxby, George B. Bulman New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility Using Administrative DataPablo A. Mitnik, Victoria L. Bryant, Michael Weber, David B. Grusky Donor-Advised Funds: An Overview Using IRS DataPaul Arnsberger Back to the top 2014 Early Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts During the Great RecessionRobert Argento, Victoria L. Bryant, John Sabelhaus Who Benefits from Tax Expenditures on Capital? Evidence on Capital Income and Wealth ConcentrationAssociated Tables (.xls format)Emmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley, Gabriel Zucman, LSE The Returns to the Federal Tax Credits for Higher EducationGeorge B. Bulman, Caroline M. Hoxby Labor Force Participation Elasticities of Women and Secondary Earners within Married CouplesRobert McClelland, Congressional Budget Office, Shannon Mok, Congressional Budget Office, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service Older Taxpayers' Response to Taxation of Social Security BenefitsLeonard Burman, Syracuse University and the Tax Policy Center, Norma B. Coe, University of Washington and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service, Liu Tian, Syracuse University Over the Top: How Tax Returns Show that the Very Rich Are Different from You and MeJenny Bourne and Lisa Rosenmerkel The Economic Impact of Tax Expenditures: Evidence from Spatial Variation Across the U.S.Associated Tables - excluding Table VII and Table XX (.zip format)Appendix Table VII (.zip format)Appendix Table XXAssociated FiguresRaj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and, Patrick Kline and Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research Back to the top 2013 The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction and Migratory Insurance Over the Great RecessionDanny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley Do Financial Frictions Amplify Fiscal Policy? Evidence from Business Investment StimulusEric Zwick and James Mahon, Harvard University A New Look at the Income-Wealth Connection for America's Wealthiest DecedentsBarry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS A Comparison of Wealth Estimates For America's Wealthiest Decedents Using Tax Data and Data From The Forbes 400Barry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax CutDanny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley Do Tax Credits for Parents Affect Child College Enrollment?Nathaniel G. Hilger, Brown University Back to the top 2011 New Evidence on the Long-Term Impacts of Tax CreditsRaj Chetty and JohnFriedman, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and Jonah Rockoff, Columbia University and the National Bureau of Economic Research Back to the top 2009 Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli SamplesHenry, Kimberly; Testa, Valerie; Valliant, Richard The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative AnalysisRaub, Brian; Belmonte, Cynthia; Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli SamplesKimberly Henry and Valerie Testa, Internal Revenue Service and Richard Valliant, University of Michigan The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative AnalysisBrian Raub, Cynthia Belmonte, Paul Arnsberger, and Melissa Ludlum, Internal Revenue Service Back to the top 2008 Dissemination Of Statistical Products: The IRS's JourneyGangi, Martha Eller Attrition in the Individual Income Tax Return Panel, Tax Years 1999–2005Bryant, Victoria Statistics of Income Sales of Capital Assets Sample Redesign for Tax Year 2007Liu, Yan; Scali, Jana; Strudler, Michael; Wilson, Janette 90 Years of SOI: A Collection of Historical ArticlesMultiple Authors Using Audit Data To Estimate Taxpayer Reporting Error in the Statistics of Income Division's Individual Tax Return SampleHenry, Kimberly Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax DataJohnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin Old Tabulations, Old Files, and a Brief History of Individual Tax Return SamplingWeber, Michael; Paris, David; Sailer, Peter Back to the top 2007 Measuring Disclosure Risk and an Examination of the Possibilities of Using Synthetic Data in the Individual Income Tax Return Public Use FileVartivarian, Sonya; Czajka, John; Weber, Michael Measuring the Quality of Service to Taxpayers in Volunteer SitesCecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald; Hooker, Rachael SOI Develops Better Survey Questions Through PretestingMilleville, Diane; Wells, Tara Using the Statistics of Income Division's Sample Data To Reduce Measurement and Processing Error in Small-Area Estimates Produced from Administrative Tax RecordsHenry, Kimberly; Lahiri, Partha; Fisher, Robin An Empirical Evaluation of Various Direct, Synthetic, and Traditional Composite Small-Area EstimatorsHenry, Kimberly; Strudler, Michael; Chen, William Evaluating Alternative One-Sided Coverage Intervals for an Extreme Binomial ProportionLiu, Yan; Kott, Phillip Improving the Quality of U.S. Tax Statistics: Recent Innovations in Editing and Imputation Techniques at the Statistics of Income Division of the U.S. Internal Revenue ServiceScott M. Hollenbeck, Melissa Ludlum, and Barry W. Johnson, Internal Revenue Service Using an Individual Income Tax Panel File To Measure Changes in Marginal Tax Rates: OpportunitiesDiamond, John; Rector, Ralph; Weber, Michael Back to the top 2006 Social Security Taxes, Social Security Benefits, and Social Security Benefits Taxation, 2003Sailer, Peter; Pierce, Kevin; Lomize, Evgenia Analysis of the Distributions of Income, Taxes, and Payroll Taxes via Cross Section and Panel Data, 1979–2004Strudler, Michael; Hentz, Lori; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan Performance Measurement within the Statistics of Income DivisionCecco, Kevin Customer Satisfaction Initiatives at IRS's Statistics of Income: Using Surveys to Improve Customer ServiceSchwartz, Ruth; Kilss, Beth Tying Website Performance to Mission Achievement in the Federal GovernmentMilleville, Diane The Tax Year 1999–2003 Individual Income Tax Return Panel: A First Look at the DataWeber, Michael Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm to Multivariate Optimal Allocation in Stratified Sample DesignsDay, Charles Factors in Estates' Utilization of Special Tax Provisions for Family-Owned Farms and Closely Held BusinessesGangi, Martha Eller; Henry, Kimberly; Raub, Brian Corporation Life Cycles: Examining Attrition Trends and Return Characteristics in Statistics of Income Cross-Sectional 1120 SamplesMatthew L. Scoffic An Analysis of the Free File ProgramChu, Michelle; Kovalick, Melissa Comparing Strategies To Estimate a Measure of HeteroscedasticityHenry, Kimberly; Valliant, Richard Creativity and Compromise: Constructing a Panel of Income and Estate Tax Data for Wealthy IndividualsJohnson, Barry; Schreiber, Lisa Monitoring Statistics of Income (SOI) SamplesKoshansky, Joseph Back to the top 2005 Trends in 401(k) and IRA Contribution Activity, 1999–2002—Results from a Panel of Matched Tax Returns and Information DocumentsSailer, Peter; Bryant, Victoria Holden, Sarah The 1999 Individual Income Tax Return Edited PanelWeber, Michael; Bryant, Victoria A Cluster Analysis Approach To Describing Tax DataRaub, Brian; Chen, William Origins of the Estate and Personal Wealth Sample DesignMcMahon, Paul Corporation Supercritical Cases: How Do Imputed Returns on the Corporate File Compare to the Actual Returns?Davitian, Lucy Internal Revenue Service Area-To-Area Migration Data: Strengths, Limitations, and Current TrendsGross, Emily A Comparison of Income Concepts: IRS Statistics of Income, Census Current Population Survey, and BLS Consumer Expenditure SurveyHenry, Eric; Day, Charles Measuring Nonsampling Error in the Statistics of Income Individual Tax Return StudyScali, Jana; Testa, Valerie; Kahr, Maureen; Strudler, Michael The Impact of the Followup Process on the 2002 Foreign Tax Credit Study DataSingmaster, Rob; Redmiles, Lissa Prelude to Schedule M–3: Schedule M–1 Corporate Book-Tax Difference Data, 1990–2003Boynton, Charles; DeFilippes, Portia; Legel, Ellen An Essay on the Effects of Taxation on the Corporate Financial PolicyContos, George An Analysis of Business Organizational Structure and Activity from Tax DataPetska, Tom; Parisi, Michael; Luttrell, Kelly; Davitian, Lucy; Scoffic, Matt Geographic Variation in Schedule H Filing Rates: Why Should Location Influence the Decision To Report Nanny Taxes?Bloomquist, Kim; An, Zhiyong Current Research in the Nonprofit SectorArnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa; Riley, Margaret Back to the top 2004 Use of Individual Retirement Arrangements to Save for Retirement—Results From a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Documents for Tax Year 2001Sailer, Peter; Holden, Sarah Further Analysis of the Distribution of Income and Taxes, 1979–2003Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan The Statistics of Income 1979–2002 Continuous Work History Sample Individual Income Tax Return PanelWeber, Michael Assessing Industry Codes on the IRS Business Master FileMcMahon, Paul Customer Satisfaction Initiatives within the Statistics of Income Division of the Internal Revenue ServiceCecco, Kevin The Evolution of IRS Telephone Quality MeasuresRosage, Laura Some New Tables for Upper Probability Points of the Largest Root of a Determinantal EquationChen, William Editor Judgment Effect: Modeling a Key Component of Nonsampling Error in Administrative DataHenry, Kimberly; Ahmed, Yahia; Legel, Ellen The Effect of Content Errors on Bias and Nonsampling Variance in Estimates Derived From SamplesJohnson, Barry; Jacobson,Darien B. Data Interpretation across Sources: A Study of Form 990–PF Information Collected from Multiple DatabasesLudlum, Melissa Recent Research on Small Business Compliance BurdenGuyton, John; Kindlon, Audrey; Zhou, Jian The Mismeasure of Man's Well-Being: Refining Realized Income Measures with Wealth, Portfolio, and Mortality InformationJohnson, Barry; Wahl, Jenny Tax Evasion and Entrepreneurship: The Effect of Income Reporting Policies on Evasion. An Experimental ApproachAlm, James; Deskins, John; McKee, Michael Audit Information Dissemination, Taxpayer Communication and Tax Compliance: An Experimental Investigation of Indirect Audit EffectsAlm, James; Jackson, Betty; McKee, Michael Multi-Agent Based Simulation of the Deterrent Effects of Taxpayer AuditsBloomquist, Kim Developing Adoptable Disclosure Protection Techniques: Lessons Learned From a U.S. ExperienceGreenia, Nicholas Consider the Source: Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax DataJohnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin Back to the top 2003 The Effects of Tax Reform on the Structure of U.S. BusinessLegel, Ellen; Bennett, Kelly; Parisi, Michael Accumulation and Distributions of Retirement Assets, 1996–2000—Results from a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information ReturnsSailer, Peter; Gurka, Kurt; Holden, Sarah An Analysis of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes, 1979–2001Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan IRS Seeks to Develop New Web-Based Measurement Indicators for IRS.govDixon, Diane Statistical Information Services at IRS: Improving Dissemination of Data and Satisfying the CustomerKilss, Beth; Jordan, David Recent Efforts to Maximize Benefits from the Statistics of Income Advisory PanelPetska, Tom; Kilss, Beth Regulatory Exemptions and Item NonresponseMcMahon, Paul Comparing Scoring Systems From Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis Using Random SamplesWong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin Estimating the Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income TaxToder, Eric J.; Guyton, John; O'Hare, John; Stavrianos, Michael Tax Evasion, Income Inequality and Opportunity Costs of ComplianceBloomquist, Kim IRS's Comprehensive Approach to Compliance MeasurementBrown, Robert; Mazur, Mark Back to the top 2002 Salaries and Wages and Deferred Income, 1989–1999Sailer, Peter; Yau, Ellen; Gurka, Kurt; Weber, Michael Proxies in Administrative Records SurveysMcMahon, Paul Assessing Disclosure Protection for a SOI Public Use FileWinglee, Marianne; Valliant, Richard; Clark, Jay; Lim, Yunhee; Weber, Michael; Strudler, Michael Electronic Dissemination of Internal Revenue Service Locality DataGross, Emily; Kilss, Beth Analysis of the 1998 Gift Tax Panel StudyEller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara Evaluating the Effect of Sample Size Changes on Scoring System Performance Using Bootstraps and Random SamplesWong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin Using Auxiliary Information to Adjust for Non-Response in Weighting a Linked Sample of Administrative RecordsJohnson, Barry: McMahon, Paul Developing an Econometric Model for Measuring Tax Noncompliance Using Operational Audit DataErard, Brian; Ho, Chih-Chin Some New Tables of the Largest Root of a Matrix in Multivariate Analysis: A Computer Approach from 2 to 6Chen, William Are Taxpayers Increasing the Buildup of Retirement Assets? Preliminary Results from a Matched File of Tax Year 1999 Tax Returns and Information ReturnsSailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Gurka, Kurt New Estimates of the Distribution of Individual Income and TaxesStrudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan How the Quality of Responses the IRS Provides to Taxpayer Inquiries is MeasuredCecco, Kevin; Hoopengardner, Rachael The Impact of the IRS on Voluntary Tax Compliance: Preliminary Empirical ResultsPlumley, Alan Back to the top 2001 Taxing Charity: Linking Income Tax Returns to Samples of Nonexempt Charitable and Charitable RemainderBelvedere, Melissa; Mikow, Jacob; Whitten, Melissa The 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study: Using The IRS Returns Transaction File as a Sample FrameEller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara Sample Design Revisions in the Wake of NAICS and Regulatory ChangesMcMahon, Paul Statistical Information from Administrative Records in the Federal Tax SystemPetska, Tom Back to the top 2000 Exporting a Statistical System: Towards Establishing a Tax Statistics Function in South AfricaPetska, Tom Beyond Andrew Carnegie: Using a Linked Sample of Federal Income and Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Bequests on Beneficiary BehaviorMikow, Jacob; Berkowitz, Darien Statistical Consulting Within the Internal Revenue ServiceCecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald Attrition in a Panel of Individual Income Tax Returns, 1992–1997Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Wong, William Back to the top 1999 The Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes: A New Look at an Old IssuePetska, Tom; Strudler, Mike Personal Wealth, 1995Johnson, Barry Further Examination of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes Using a Consistent and Comprehensive Measure of IncomePetska, Tom; Strudler, Mike; Petska, Ryan Customer Service Satisfaction Survey: Cognitive and Prototype TestCecco, Kevin; Young, Anthony On Computing Gaussian Curvature of Some Well Known DistributionsChen, William The Feasiblity of State Corporate DataFrancis, Brian Using a Sample of Federal Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Audit Revaluation on Pre-Audit EstimatesEller, Martha Britton; Johnson, Barry Occupation and Industry Data from Tax Year 1993 Individual Tax ReturnsSailer, Peter; Nuriddin, Terry Back to the top 1998 Income, Tax, and Tax Progressivity: An Examination of Recent Trends in the Distribution of Individual Income and TaxesPetska, Tom; Strudler, Mike Updating Techniques for Estimating Wealth from Federal Estate Tax ReturnsJohnson, Barry The IRS Population Count: An UpdateSailer, Peter; Weber, Michael Back to the top 1997 Taxes and Business Organizational Choice: Deja Vu All Over Again?Petska, Tom Partnerships in Data Sharing: The Internal Revenue Service and the Bureau of Economic AnalysisPetska, Tom Federal Taxation of Inheritance and Wealth TransfersJohnson, Barry; Eller, Martha Britton Back to the top
