The Statistics of Income (SOI) working papers present new and exciting research on the U.S. Federal tax system and the methods used to produce tax statistics. Papers are presented at professional conferences, such as the Joint Statistical Meeting of the American Statistical Association and the National Tax Association's annual conference on taxation, and are often published in professional journals. Below you will find a selection of papers organized by presentation year.
Papers in this series generally do not undergo the extensive review and editorial process accorded official SOI publications. Instead, these working papers are intended to make results of research available to others and to encourage discussion on a variety of topics. As a result, papers may be occasionally revised or updated.
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020
Incorporating Financial Statement Information to Improve Forecasts of Corporate Taxable Income
Danielle H. Green, Fordham University; Erin E. Henry, University of Arkansas; Sarah M. Parsons, Sacred Heart University; George A. Plesko, University of Connecticut
Decoding Retirement: A Detailed Look at Retirement Distributions Reported on Tax Returns
Peter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company Institute
Supplemental Table 1 | Supplemental Table 2
Reconciling Form 1040 and Form 1099-R Data
Peter J. Brady and Steven Bass, Investment Company Institute
Heard it through the Grapevine: The Direct and Network Effects of a Tax Enforcement Field Experiment on Firms
William C. Boning, University of Michigan, John Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Ronald Hodge, Internal Revenue Service, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan
2019
The Effects of EITC Correspondence Audits on Low-Income Earners
John Guyton, Internal Revenue Service, Kara Leibel, Internal Revenue Service, Day Manoli, UT-Austin, Ankur Patel, Treasury, Mark Payne, Internal Revenue Service, Brenda Schafer, Internal Revenue Service
Taxing Hidden Wealth: The Consequences of U.S. Enforcement Initiatives on Evasive Foreign Accounts (PDF)
Niels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen, Patrick Langetieg, Internal Revenue Service, Daniel Reck, London School of Economics, Max Risch, Princeton University, and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan
Independent Contractors in the U.S.: New Trends from 15 years of Administrative Tax Data (PDF)
Katherine Lim, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Alicia Miller, Internal Revenue Service, Max Risch, University of Michigan, and Eleanor Wilking, New York University
Is Gig Work Replacing Traditional Employment? Evidence from Two Decades of Tax Returns (PDF)
Brett Collins, Andrew Garin, Emilie Jackson, Dmitri Koustas, and Mark Payne
Income Volatility, Taxation and the Functioning of the U.S. Labor Market (PDF)
Thibaut Lamadon, University of Chicago, Magne Mogstad, University of Chicago, Statistics Norway, NBER and IFS, and Bradley Setzler, University of Chicago
Taxes and Retirement Decisions Among Women And Secondary Earners (PDF)
Robert McClelland, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, John Iselin, UC Berkeley, Kevin Pierce, IRS Statistics of Income, and Philip Stallworth, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center
2018
Creating Homogeneous Synthetic Individual Tax Files for Distributional Analysis
Associated Data
Emmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Gabriel Zucman, UC Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research
2017
Online Postsecondary Education and the Higher Education Tax Benefits: An Analysis with Implications for Tax Administration (PDF)
Caroline M. Hoxby
IRS Behavioral Insights Toolkit
multiple authors
Using Panel Tax Data to Examine the Transition to Retirement
Associated Tables (.xls format)
Peter J. Brady, Steven Bass, Jessica Holland, Kevin Pierce
2016
Statistics of Income Tabulations: High Incomes, Gender, Age, Earnings Split, and Non-filers
Associated Tables (.xls format)
Emmanuel Saez
Comparing Survey Data and Tax Data: Differences in Reporting across Businesses
Tami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, E.J. Reedy, Josh Russell
A Tale of Two Datasets: Business Survival in Administrative versus Survey Data
Tami Gurley-Calvez, Donald Bruce, John A. Deskins, Brian Hill
2015
How Tax Credits for Higher Education Affect College-Going
Caroline M. Hoxby, George B. Bulman
New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility Using Administrative Data
Pablo A. Mitnik, Victoria L. Bryant, Michael Weber, David B. Grusky
Donor-Advised Funds: An Overview Using IRS Data
Paul Arnsberger
2014
Early Withdrawals from Retirement Accounts During the Great Recession
Robert Argento, Victoria L. Bryant, John Sabelhaus
Who Benefits from Tax Expenditures on Capital? Evidence on Capital Income and Wealth Concentration
Associated Tables (.xls format)
Emmanuel Saez, UC Berkeley, Gabriel Zucman, LSE
The Returns to the Federal Tax Credits for Higher Education
George B. Bulman, Caroline M. Hoxby
Labor Force Participation Elasticities of Women and Secondary Earners within Married Couples
Robert McClelland, Congressional Budget Office, Shannon Mok, Congressional Budget Office, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service
Older Taxpayers' Response to Taxation of Social Security Benefits
Leonard Burman, Syracuse University and the Tax Policy Center, Norma B. Coe, University of Washington and the National Bureau of Economic Research, Kevin Pierce, Internal Revenue Service, Liu Tian, Syracuse University
Over the Top: How Tax Returns Show that the Very Rich Are Different from You and Me
Jenny Bourne and Lisa Rosenmerkel
The Economic Impact of Tax Expenditures: Evidence from Spatial Variation Across the U.S.
Associated Tables - excluding Table VII and Table XX (.zip format)
Appendix Table VII (.zip format)
Appendix Table XX
Associated Figures
Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and, Patrick Kline and Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley and the National Bureau of Economic Research
2013
The Home Mortgage Interest Deduction and Migratory Insurance Over the Great Recession
Danny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley
Do Financial Frictions Amplify Fiscal Policy? Evidence from Business Investment Stimulus
Eric Zwick and James Mahon, Harvard University
A New Look at the Income-Wealth Connection for America's Wealthiest Decedents
Barry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS
A Comparison of Wealth Estimates For America's Wealthiest Decedents Using Tax Data and Data From The Forbes 400
Barry Johnson, Brian Raub, and Joseph Newcomb, Statistics of Income, IRS
Capital Tax Reform and the Real Economy: The Effects of the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut
Danny Yagan, University of California, Berkeley
Do Tax Credits for Parents Affect Child College Enrollment?
Nathaniel G. Hilger, Brown University
2011
New Evidence on the Long-Term Impacts of Tax Credits
Raj Chetty and JohnFriedman, Harvard University and the National Bureau of Economic Research, and Jonah Rockoff, Columbia University and the National Bureau of Economic Research
2009
Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli Samples
Henry, Kimberly; Testa, Valerie; Valliant, Richard
The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative Analysis
Raub, Brian; Belmonte, Cynthia; Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa
Variance Estimation for Estimators of Between-Year Change in Totals from Two Stratified Bernoulli Samples
Kimberly Henry and Valerie Testa, Internal Revenue Service and Richard Valliant, University of Michigan
The Effect of Late-Filed Returns on Population Estimates: A Comparative Analysis
Brian Raub, Cynthia Belmonte, Paul Arnsberger, and Melissa Ludlum, Internal Revenue Service
2008
Dissemination Of Statistical Products: The IRS's Journey
Gangi, Martha Eller
Attrition in the Individual Income Tax Return Panel, Tax Years 1999–2005
Bryant, Victoria
Statistics of Income Sales of Capital Assets Sample Redesign for Tax Year 2007
Liu, Yan; Scali, Jana; Strudler, Michael; Wilson, Janette
90 Years of SOI: A Collection of Historical Articles
Multiple Authors
Using Audit Data To Estimate Taxpayer Reporting Error in the Statistics of Income Division's Individual Tax Return Sample
Henry, Kimberly
Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax Data
Johnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin
Old Tabulations, Old Files, and a Brief History of Individual Tax Return Sampling
Weber, Michael; Paris, David; Sailer, Peter
2007
Measuring Disclosure Risk and an Examination of the Possibilities of Using Synthetic Data in the Individual Income Tax Return Public Use File
Vartivarian, Sonya; Czajka, John; Weber, Michael
Measuring the Quality of Service to Taxpayers in Volunteer Sites
Cecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald; Hooker, Rachael
SOI Develops Better Survey Questions Through Pretesting
Milleville, Diane; Wells, Tara
Using the Statistics of Income Division's Sample Data To Reduce Measurement and Processing Error in Small-Area Estimates Produced from Administrative Tax Records
Henry, Kimberly; Lahiri, Partha; Fisher, Robin
An Empirical Evaluation of Various Direct, Synthetic, and Traditional Composite Small-Area Estimators
Henry, Kimberly; Strudler, Michael; Chen, William
Evaluating Alternative One-Sided Coverage Intervals for an Extreme Binomial Proportion
Liu, Yan; Kott, Phillip
Improving the Quality of U.S. Tax Statistics: Recent Innovations in Editing and Imputation Techniques at the Statistics of Income Division of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service
Scott M. Hollenbeck, Melissa Ludlum, and Barry W. Johnson, Internal Revenue Service
Using an Individual Income Tax Panel File To Measure Changes in Marginal Tax Rates: Opportunities
Diamond, John; Rector, Ralph; Weber, Michael
2006
Social Security Taxes, Social Security Benefits, and Social Security Benefits Taxation, 2003
Sailer, Peter; Pierce, Kevin; Lomize, Evgenia
Analysis of the Distributions of Income, Taxes, and Payroll Taxes via Cross Section and Panel Data, 1979–2004
Strudler, Michael; Hentz, Lori; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan
Performance Measurement within the Statistics of Income Division
Cecco, Kevin
Customer Satisfaction Initiatives at IRS's Statistics of Income: Using Surveys to Improve Customer Service
Schwartz, Ruth; Kilss, Beth
Tying Website Performance to Mission Achievement in the Federal Government
Milleville, Diane
The Tax Year 1999–2003 Individual Income Tax Return Panel: A First Look at the Data
Weber, Michael
Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm to Multivariate Optimal Allocation in Stratified Sample Designs
Day, Charles
Factors in Estates' Utilization of Special Tax Provisions for Family-Owned Farms and Closely Held Businesses
Gangi, Martha Eller; Henry, Kimberly; Raub, Brian
Corporation Life Cycles: Examining Attrition Trends and Return Characteristics in Statistics of Income Cross-Sectional 1120 Samples
Matthew L. Scoffic
An Analysis of the Free File Program
Chu, Michelle; Kovalick, Melissa
Comparing Strategies To Estimate a Measure of Heteroscedasticity
Henry, Kimberly; Valliant, Richard
Creativity and Compromise: Constructing a Panel of Income and Estate Tax Data for Wealthy Individuals
Johnson, Barry; Schreiber, Lisa
Monitoring Statistics of Income (SOI) Samples
Koshansky, Joseph
2005
Trends in 401(k) and IRA Contribution Activity, 1999–2002—Results from a Panel of Matched Tax Returns and Information Documents
Sailer, Peter; Bryant, Victoria Holden, Sarah
The 1999 Individual Income Tax Return Edited Panel
Weber, Michael; Bryant, Victoria
A Cluster Analysis Approach To Describing Tax Data
Raub, Brian; Chen, William
Origins of the Estate and Personal Wealth Sample Design
McMahon, Paul
Corporation Supercritical Cases: How Do Imputed Returns on the Corporate File Compare to the Actual Returns?
Davitian, Lucy
Internal Revenue Service Area-To-Area Migration Data: Strengths, Limitations, and Current Trends
Gross, Emily
A Comparison of Income Concepts: IRS Statistics of Income, Census Current Population Survey, and BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey
Henry, Eric; Day, Charles
Measuring Nonsampling Error in the Statistics of Income Individual Tax Return Study
Scali, Jana; Testa, Valerie; Kahr, Maureen; Strudler, Michael
The Impact of the Followup Process on the 2002 Foreign Tax Credit Study Data
Singmaster, Rob; Redmiles, Lissa
Prelude to Schedule M–3: Schedule M–1 Corporate Book-Tax Difference Data, 1990–2003
Boynton, Charles; DeFilippes, Portia; Legel, Ellen
An Essay on the Effects of Taxation on the Corporate Financial Policy
Contos, George
An Analysis of Business Organizational Structure and Activity from Tax Data
Petska, Tom; Parisi, Michael; Luttrell, Kelly; Davitian, Lucy; Scoffic, Matt
Geographic Variation in Schedule H Filing Rates: Why Should Location Influence the Decision To Report Nanny Taxes?
Bloomquist, Kim; An, Zhiyong
Current Research in the Nonprofit Sector
Arnsberger, Paul; Ludlum, Melissa; Riley, Margaret
2004
Use of Individual Retirement Arrangements to Save for Retirement—Results From a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Documents for Tax Year 2001
Sailer, Peter; Holden, Sarah
Further Analysis of the Distribution of Income and Taxes, 1979–2003
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan
The Statistics of Income 1979–2002 Continuous Work History Sample Individual Income Tax Return Panel
Weber, Michael
Assessing Industry Codes on the IRS Business Master File
McMahon, Paul
Customer Satisfaction Initiatives within the Statistics of Income Division of the Internal Revenue Service
Cecco, Kevin
The Evolution of IRS Telephone Quality Measures
Rosage, Laura
Some New Tables for Upper Probability Points of the Largest Root of a Determinantal Equation
Chen, William
Editor Judgment Effect: Modeling a Key Component of Nonsampling Error in Administrative Data
Henry, Kimberly; Ahmed, Yahia; Legel, Ellen
The Effect of Content Errors on Bias and Nonsampling Variance in Estimates Derived From Samples
Johnson, Barry; Jacobson,Darien B.
Data Interpretation across Sources: A Study of Form 990–PF Information Collected from Multiple Databases
Ludlum, Melissa
Recent Research on Small Business Compliance Burden
Guyton, John; Kindlon, Audrey; Zhou, Jian
The Mismeasure of Man's Well-Being: Refining Realized Income Measures with Wealth, Portfolio, and Mortality Information
Johnson, Barry; Wahl, Jenny
Tax Evasion and Entrepreneurship: The Effect of Income Reporting Policies on Evasion. An Experimental Approach
Alm, James; Deskins, John; McKee, Michael
Audit Information Dissemination, Taxpayer Communication and Tax Compliance: An Experimental Investigation of Indirect Audit Effects
Alm, James; Jackson, Betty; McKee, Michael
Multi-Agent Based Simulation of the Deterrent Effects of Taxpayer Audits
Bloomquist, Kim
Developing Adoptable Disclosure Protection Techniques: Lessons Learned From a U.S. Experience
Greenia, Nicholas
Consider the Source: Differences in Income Estimates Derived from Survey and Tax Data
Johnson, Barry; Moore, Kevin
2003
The Effects of Tax Reform on the Structure of U.S. Business
Legel, Ellen; Bennett, Kelly; Parisi, Michael
Accumulation and Distributions of Retirement Assets, 1996–2000—Results from a Matched File of Tax Returns and Information Returns
Sailer, Peter; Gurka, Kurt; Holden, Sarah
An Analysis of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes, 1979–2001
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan
IRS Seeks to Develop New Web-Based Measurement Indicators for IRS.gov
Dixon, Diane
Statistical Information Services at IRS: Improving Dissemination of Data and Satisfying the Customer
Kilss, Beth; Jordan, David
Recent Efforts to Maximize Benefits from the Statistics of Income Advisory Panel
Petska, Tom; Kilss, Beth
Regulatory Exemptions and Item Nonresponse
McMahon, Paul
Comparing Scoring Systems From Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis Using Random Samples
Wong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin
Estimating the Compliance Cost of the U.S. Individual Income Tax
Toder, Eric J.; Guyton, John; O'Hare, John; Stavrianos, Michael
Tax Evasion, Income Inequality and Opportunity Costs of Compliance
Bloomquist, Kim
IRS's Comprehensive Approach to Compliance Measurement
Brown, Robert; Mazur, Mark
2002
Salaries and Wages and Deferred Income, 1989–1999
Sailer, Peter; Yau, Ellen; Gurka, Kurt; Weber, Michael
Proxies in Administrative Records Surveys
McMahon, Paul
Assessing Disclosure Protection for a SOI Public Use File
Winglee, Marianne; Valliant, Richard; Clark, Jay; Lim, Yunhee; Weber, Michael; Strudler, Michael
Electronic Dissemination of Internal Revenue Service Locality Data
Gross, Emily; Kilss, Beth
Analysis of the 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study
Eller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara
Evaluating the Effect of Sample Size Changes on Scoring System Performance Using Bootstraps and Random Samples
Wong, William; Ho, Chih-Chin
Using Auxiliary Information to Adjust for Non-Response in Weighting a Linked Sample of Administrative Records
Johnson, Barry: McMahon, Paul
Developing an Econometric Model for Measuring Tax Noncompliance Using Operational Audit Data
Erard, Brian; Ho, Chih-Chin
Some New Tables of the Largest Root of a Matrix in Multivariate Analysis: A Computer Approach from 2 to 6
Chen, William
Are Taxpayers Increasing the Buildup of Retirement Assets? Preliminary Results from a Matched File of Tax Year 1999 Tax Returns and Information Returns
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Gurka, Kurt
New Estimates of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes
Strudler, Michael; Petska, Tom; Petska, Ryan
How the Quality of Responses the IRS Provides to Taxpayer Inquiries is Measured
Cecco, Kevin; Hoopengardner, Rachael
The Impact of the IRS on Voluntary Tax Compliance: Preliminary Empirical Results
Plumley, Alan
2001
Taxing Charity: Linking Income Tax Returns to Samples of Nonexempt Charitable and Charitable Remainder
Belvedere, Melissa; Mikow, Jacob; Whitten, Melissa
The 1998 Gift Tax Panel Study: Using The IRS Returns Transaction File as a Sample Frame
Eller, Martha Britton; Rib, Tamara
Sample Design Revisions in the Wake of NAICS and Regulatory Changes
McMahon, Paul
Statistical Information from Administrative Records in the Federal Tax System
Petska, Tom
2000
Exporting a Statistical System: Towards Establishing a Tax Statistics Function in South Africa
Petska, Tom
Beyond Andrew Carnegie: Using a Linked Sample of Federal Income and Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Bequests on Beneficiary Behavior
Mikow, Jacob; Berkowitz, Darien
Statistical Consulting Within the Internal Revenue Service
Cecco, Kevin; Walsh, Ronald
Attrition in a Panel of Individual Income Tax Returns, 1992–1997
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Wong, William
1999
The Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes: A New Look at an Old Issue
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike
Personal Wealth, 1995
Johnson, Barry
Further Examination of the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes Using a Consistent and Comprehensive Measure of Income
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike; Petska, Ryan
Customer Service Satisfaction Survey: Cognitive and Prototype Test
Cecco, Kevin; Young, Anthony
On Computing Gaussian Curvature of Some Well Known Distributions
Chen, William
The Feasiblity of State Corporate Data
Francis, Brian
Using a Sample of Federal Estate Tax Returns to Examine the Effects of Audit Revaluation on Pre-Audit Estimates
Eller, Martha Britton; Johnson, Barry
Occupation and Industry Data from Tax Year 1993 Individual Tax Returns
Sailer, Peter; Nuriddin, Terry
1998
Income, Tax, and Tax Progressivity: An Examination of Recent Trends in the Distribution of Individual Income and Taxes
Petska, Tom; Strudler, Mike
Updating Techniques for Estimating Wealth from Federal Estate Tax Returns
Johnson, Barry
The IRS Population Count: An Update
Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael
1997
Taxes and Business Organizational Choice: Deja Vu All Over Again?
Petska, Tom
Partnerships in Data Sharing: The Internal Revenue Service and the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Petska, Tom
Federal Taxation of Inheritance and Wealth Transfers
Johnson, Barry; Eller, Martha Britton