The Tax Gap
The gross tax gap is the difference between true tax liability for a given tax year and the amount that is paid on time. It is comprised of the nonfiling gap, the underreporting gap, and the underpayment (or remittance) gap. The net tax gap is the portion of the gross tax gap that will never be recovered through enforcement or other late payments.
The reports listed below vary as to whether they focus narrowly on one or two types of tax versus all taxes. They are organized into sections dealing with Tax Years 2011–2013, Tax Year 2006, Tax Year 2001, and earlier tax years. Also included is a section containing reports on reducing the tax gap.
All files on this page are available in Adobe® PDF format, which requires the free Adobe Acrobat® reader to view and print the file.
Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013
- Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011–2013 (Publication 1415) (PDF)
- Tax Gap Executive Summary (Publication 5364) (PDF)
- Tax Gap Map (Publication 5365) (PDF)
Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008-2010
Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008–2010 (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Research, Analysis & Statistics |
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Publication date: |
May 2016 |
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Written for: |
Publication 1415 (Rev. 5-2016) |
Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Year 2006
Overview of the Tax Gap for Tax Year 2006 (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Office of Research |
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Publication date: |
January 2012 |
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Written for: |
Public release |
Summary of Tax Gap Estimation Methods (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Office of Research |
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Publication date: |
January 2012 |
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Written for: |
Public release |
Tax Gap Map (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Office of Research |
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Publication date: |
January 2012 |
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Written for: |
Public release |
Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Year 2006 Tax Gap Estimation (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Office of Research |
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Publication date: |
March 2012 |
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Written for: |
Research, Analysis, and Statistics Working Paper |
Estimates of the Tax Year 2006 Individual Income Tax Underreporting Gap (PDF) |
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Author: |
Kim Bloomquist, Ed Emblom, Drew Johns, and Patrick Langetieg (IRS, Office of Research) |
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Publication date: |
June 2012 |
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Written for: |
2012 IRS-TPC Research Conference, Publication 1500 |
Advances in Nonfiling Measures (PDF) |
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Author: |
Brian Erard (B. Erard & Associates), Mark Payne and Alan Plumley (IRS, Office of Research) |
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Publication date: |
June 2012 |
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Written for: |
2012 IRS-TPC Research Conference, Publication 1500 |
Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Year 2001
Tax Year 2001 Federal Tax Gap Overview (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Office of Research |
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Publication date: |
February 2007 |
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Written for: |
Public release |
Tax Gap Estimates for Earlier Tax Years
Federal Tax Compliance Research: Individual Income Tax Gap Estimates for 1985, 1988, and 1992 (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Compliance Research |
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Publication date: |
April 1996, revised |
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Written for: |
Publication 1415 |
Federal Tax Compliance Research: Gross and Net Employment Tax Gap Estimates for 1984–1997 (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Research Division |
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Publication date: |
October 1993, revised |
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Written for: |
Publication 1415-E |
Income Tax Compliance Research: Net Tax Gap and Remittance Gap Estimates (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Research Division |
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Publication date: |
April 1990, revised |
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Written for: |
Publication 1415 |
Gross Tax Gap Estimates and Projections for 1973-1992 (PDF) |
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Author: |
IRS, Research Division |
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Publication date: |
March 1988 |
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Written for: |
Publication 7285 |
Tax Gap Related Methods
This section includes papers that focus on estimation methods that have been used for estimating the tax gap, though these papers do not contain tax gap estimates.
Statistical Analysis of Compliance Using the NRP Data: Detection Controlled Models (PDF) |
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Author: |
Jonathan Feinstein, Yale University |
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Publication date: |
June 2004 |
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Written for: |
2004 IRS Research Conference |
Developing an Econometric Model for Measuring Tax Noncompliance Using Operational Audit Data (PDF) |
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Authors: |
Brian Erard, B. Erard and Associates, Chih-Chin Ho, IRS |
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Publication date: |
August 2002 |
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Written for: |
2002 American Statistical Association Conference |
Reports on Reducing the Tax Gap
These reports have been written by the Department of the Treasury and IRS to describe current and planned efforts to reduce the tax gap.